Israel faces threat of Gaza conflict spreading to northern frontier with Lebanon

Telegraph UK (Link) - Andrew Wander (December 29, 2008)

Palestinian fighters based in southern Lebanon may be preparing to retaliate for the assault on Gaza by striking across the border and opening a second front against Israel. This would mark a major escalation, possibly provoking an Israeli invasion of Lebanon and a regional war.

The UN peacekeeping force in the country, UNIFIL, and the Lebanese Army have stepped up their patrols amid rising tension along the frontier. "The usual measures have been fortified along the border," said a senior Lebanese military official.

At least five Israeli warplanes have already conducted "mock air raids" over towns in southern Lebanon, according to the national news agency. Unmanned reconnaissance drones carried out extensive surveillance of the area on Saturday night. The Israeli Air Force flies regular reconnaissance missions over Lebanon, in violation of UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 34-day war between Israel and Hizbollah, the radical Shia movement, in 2006.

Hizbollah, which controls most of southern Lebanon, has amassed perhaps as many as 40,000 missiles for use against Israel. But this arsenal, largely supplied by Iran, is probably being held in reserve to retaliate for any future Israeli or American assault on Tehran.

Palestinian fighters could, however, open a second front against Israel without Hizbollah's direct involvement. The question is whether this would reignite the war between Hizbollah and Israel.

Timur Goksel, a Beirut-based academic who served for more than 20 years with UNIFIL, said that Palestinian armed groups were able to act without Hizbollah. "I don't think there will be an organisational response of any sort, but there are enough Palestinian groups of various types to respond." He added: "It's certainly a distinct possibility." But it was unlikely that Hizbollah itself would retaliate for Gaza's ordeal. "I don't think that Hizbollah have anything on the cards now," said Mr Goksel.

Paul Salem, from Beirut's Carnegie Middle East Centre, said the attack on Gaza placed Hizbollah under pressure to respond. "I think it's very unlikely that Hizbullah will open a second front on the border, but they are in a difficult position," he said. "Politically they are under pressure to act. Other Arab states have paid lip service, but the difference with Hizbollah is they take action. But I don't think they will act, because it will come at a huge cost and this is not a battle of their choosing."

Israel may also want to avoid an unplanned confrontation with Hizbollah. It may choose to treat any attacks from Palestinian groups in Lebanon as isolated incidents. "I wouldn't be surprised if Palestinian groups send a few rockets across the border, but Israel will likely ignore them, because they don't want to push Hizbollah to respond," said Mr Salem. "The overflights are a clear warning to Hizbollah not to do anything."