Telegraph UK (Link) - Bruno Waterfield (September 4, 2009)
WHAT IS THE LISBON TREATY?
The Lisbon Treaty is the controversial successor to the European Union Constitution and is billed as necessary update to streamline Brussels institutions.
EU leaders agreed the reforms in order to help the Union function more smoothly now its membership has grown from 15 to 27, and in order for Europe to play more of a role as a single bloc on the global stage.
It is the latest in a series of treaties amending the original 1957 Treaty of Rome - from the Single European Act, through the Maastricht Treaty and the Treaties of Amsterdam and of Nice - to integrate institutions, as the policies and scope of the EU has expanded over the last 20 years.
British diplomats have claimed that the Lisbon Treaty will be the last changes to EU institutions until 2020, or beyond.
When the treaty comes into force, it will create two new and potentially powerful posts, a President and a "foreign minister", and further streamline decision-making to make it harder for countries to block legislation that most members favour.
In particular there will be more "qualified majority voting" in the Council of Ministers, the Brussels body where ministers from each member state must thrash out many of the big policy decisions together. That will make it harder for individual countries like Britain to block laws that they do not like. There will also be greater involvement of the European Parliament, although MEPs will still not have the power to propose or table laws by themselves.
HOW IS IT RELATED TO THE PLAN FOR A CONSTITUTION?
A written Constitution Treaty for the EU was drafted and agreed by Europe's leaders in June 2004. Tony Blair, the prime minister of the day, promised Britons a referendum on the text, to be the first popular British vote on Europe since 1975. But the original text was dropped after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected it in two referendums. The British vote was cancelled.
Two years later most of the Constitution's provisions were resurrected in the Lisbon Treaty, a document critics say is as much of a threat to national sovereignty as the old text would have been. In one of his first major decisions as prime minister, Gordon Brown broke Mr Blair's promise to hold a referendum on the new treaty.
WHEN DOES IT COME INTO EFFECT?
The treaty is intended to come into effect from the beginning of next year, but cannot do so unless all 27 member states have separately ratified it - making it binding by introducing its provisions into national law.
Even after the Irish "Yes" vote, two countries have yet to complete the formalities. Parliaments in both Poland and the Czech Republic have already approved the necessary legislation, but neither country's president has yet signed it.
In Poland, President Lech Kaczynski, an Tory-style Eurosceptic whose party is no longer in command of the parliament, is has been delaying his signing in the hope that Ireland would reject the treaty. [Ireland voted yes on October 3, 2009] He objects to the treaty because Poland will face a reduction in its votes on councils of ministers, while Germany gains.
Even so, he is widely expected now to sign within days.
Vaclav Klaus, the Czech president, who fears that the treaty tips the balance of sovereignty towards a European superstate, is more likely to continue to hold things up.
Defying both chambers of the Czech parliament, Mr Klaus has been accused of gambling with his country's economic future to make a minority political point.
Right-wing Czech senators, with links to the Tories, have lodged objections to the treaty with their country's constitutional court. The court may take between two and eight months to rule on them - giving Mr Klaus, egged on by his British and Czech supporters, the excuse to string things out.
Even so, Czech ministers have briefed EU officials that Mr Klaus will cave in and sign before the end of this year, enabling the treaty to enter into legal force in January.
WHAT IS THE EU PRESIDENT?
The job of fronting and chairing the Council of the EU, an institution which brings together national leaders in summits and ministers in councils, will be the most powerful Brussels post ever created.
Under the current system, countries' leaders take it in turns every six months to chair, including European Councils of heads of state and governments.
If the Lisbon Treaty enters into force a single official, known formally as the President of the Council, will take over for a two-and-a-half year term, representing Europe on the world stage.
The role will be further enhanced by the creation of a large supporting staff and an advisory cabinet of between 16 and 22 salaried political aides. The president will receive a salary expected to be at least £250,000, and negotiations are continuing on whether he should have a chic official residence, for entertaining fellow world leaders.
The EU President could become even more powerful in future, if - as some suggest - he is permitted to serve simultaneously as the President of the European Commission, the powerful bureaucracy that enforces and exclusively proposes European legislation.
But, for the time being, the current Commission president, Jose Manual Barroso, has just been reappointed for a further five year term.
The EU's president will be chosen by a vote of European leaders of the member states, not by MEPs or by voters.
WILL TONY BLAIR BE FIRST PRESIDENT?
Tony Blair is the current frontrunner for the new job of President of the Council of the EU - among a small field thought to include Dutch, French and Luxembourgian prime ministers, and former leaders of Spain, Austria and Finland.
Nobody is certain that publicly declared support for Mr Blair from France can be trusted, and there are still lingering German reservations to overcome.
'FOREIGN MINISTER'
One of the most controversial elements of the abandoned EU Constitution was a plan for a "foreign minister", who it was feared could eclipse the power of member states to conduct their own, independent foreign policies.
Instead, the Lisbon Treaty establishes a new post of "High Representative", which most agree is the same post in all but name.
The new "High Rep" will run a powerful EU diplomatic service, with up to 160 representations around the world.
In certain circumstances, he will also be able to make foreign policy under his own initiative.
Critics have argued that in situations such as the recent conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, where there were differences of opinion between London and other EU capitals, the High Rep could make policies with which Britain disagreed - but which it could not veto and was bound to follow.
Unlike Europe's current foreign policy representative Javier Solana, the new "foreign minister" will also be a Vice-President of the European Commission, making him a powerful official in Brussels and abroad. He will oversee a new EU diplomatic corps, the European External Action Service - full-time diplomats who will fan out around the world's capitals to represent the EU and push for its interests.
He will chair monthly meetings of Europe's foreign ministers.
SO WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
European Union leaders will meet in Brussels on October 29 for an unprecedented share out of jobs - including those of the newly created President and "Foreign Minister".
At the same time, the posts of a further 26 commissioners will be filled, with stiff competition for economic jobs, especially those enforcing EU competition and single market rules.
The EU's executive is expected to play a major role in Europe's recession hit economy and will be the authority that decides whether bank, or other industry, bailouts are acceptable under European law.
Meanwhile, the EU's Permanent Representatives - ambassadors to Brussels from the 27 member states - will begin meeting three times a week, in confidential and rushed negotiations, to hammer out the details before the Lisbon Treaty enters into force next year.
Talks began in late July, once a week, but the "hard" issues surrounding the setting up of new institutions and agreement on their precise powers have been left until last.
Officials regard Lisbon Treaty "implementation" as highly sensitive and all the documentation is classified.
HOW COULD THE TORIES PREVENT THE TREATY?
David Cameron may have pledged "not to let the matter rest" but in practice his range of options are restricted.
In a Union governed by the rule of pacta sunt servanda ("agreements must be kept"), Mr Cameron can only reopen the Treaty with the consent of a majority of the EU's other leaders.
In 1985, during a Milan summit, Margaret Thatcher, even with the support of Greece and Denmark, was powerless to stop work beginning on the internal market reforms that eventually became the 1986 Single European Act - the first major revision of the EU's founding Treaty of Rome text.
Mr Cameron would have a similar problem. He would be alone in trying to reopen what other governments would consider a can of worms - an EU treaty that had survived referendum rejections in France, the Netherlands and Ireland before it finally came into force.
Calling a referendum on a ratified treaty, which is already in legal force, could be seen by other member states as tantamount to threatening unilateral withdrawal from the EU - with likely financial penalties and uncertain economic consequences.
Britain would face two options. It could push for opt-outs from key areas of EU legislation - in areas such as social and employment policy, perhaps, where EU laws on working hours and maternity leave are seen as most intrusive.
Any attempt to forge such a deal - which would amount to a lesser form of EU membership - would have to be acceptable to all 26 other member states. But, EU officials concede, if Britain voted No in a referendum, some kind of new relationship would have to be worked out.
Or, Britain could withdraw from the EU altogether. Ironically, the Lisbon Treaty creates for the first time a mechanism for countries to leave - though the terms of departure, including financial penalties for the country involved, would be dictated by the other EU members.
None of Britain's mainstream parties - including the Conservatives - want to pull out of the EU, since even most Eurosceptics admit that there are benefits of membership.
A senior Commission official said: "Disentangling Britain would be pretty brutal. Almost every aspect of British life is touched by the EU, certainly in terms of the economy and trade. There would be huge costs. Would people really want to pay them?"
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