Watchman Newsletter

ROTHBARD & RUCKER: Global warming’s weak links

The Washington Times (Link) - David Rothbard and Craig Rucker (April 10, 2010)

Delegates from around the world gather in Bonn this weekend to chart the future of a new global-warming treaty they hope to sign in Mexico this fall or in South Africa in 2011 at the latest. This treaty would lock our nation into massive new taxation, regulation, subsidies and redistribution; take unprecedented control of our economy; and radically alter our way of life. Laws and regulations that increase the power of government are seldom repealed. Treaties are tougher still. The costs and burdens of the treaty these delegates hope to sign are so extraordinary, they cannot be justified unless every link in the chain of logic supporting the treaty is beyond reproach.

A chain, we all know, is only as strong as its weakest link. We must have extraordinary confidence in the integrity of every link before we trust it. Has the process been sound? Has the globe warmed? Are we humans to blame? Will any warming continue? Would the impacts be terrible? Would the proposed solutions do any meaningful good? Will the benefits exceed the costs? Let any link in this chain of questions fail, and the treaty cannot be justified. It would be all pain, no gain and should be scrapped.

The public’s trust in the supposed scientific consensus took a blow when a vast body of e-mails from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia came to light in what has been dubbed “Climategate.” Climate scientists derided their critics, blocked access to peer-reviewed literature, withheld data from examination, planned to “hide the decline” in past temperatures and generally revealed themselves to be shaping their science to their politics rather than the other way around. Anyone who tells you climate science is settled is selling something. The climate is a vastly complicated system. The science that studies it is prone to error and was politicized before it could mature.

Misery For Motorists As Petrol Hits £6 A Gallon

Express UK (Link) - Louise Barnett (April 9, 2010)

The £6 ($9) gallon arrived at Britain’s petrol pumps yesterday as motorists ­continue to be hammered by Labour.

Unleaded hit an average of 119.9p a litre for the first time ever, breaking the previous July 2008 record of 119.7p.

But some forecourts are already charging 131.9p a litre – just a penny short of the £6 gallon.

“This is a dark day for Britain’s hard-pressed motorists,” said the RAC. And there is worse to come, warned experts last night.

A ­perfect storm of rising wholesale costs, the weak pound and more Government tax hikes will propel fuel costs even higher. Drivers were warned to brace themselves for a 5p-a-litre surge in the next three months, pushing unleaded prices to a 125p a litre average by the summer holidays.

Brian Madderson, chairman of RMI Petrol, which represents 6,000 independent forecourts, said: “Even without any further tax rises by a new Government one can see the price of fuel continuing to ramp upwards. Certainly 125p a litre by the summer is looking more likely every day.”

Half of America ‘effectively on welfare’

One News Now (Link) - Jim Brown (April 9, 2010)

A leading free-market economist says it’s not a stable situation for a republican democracy when half of the citizens aren’t contributing to the cost of the government they’re benefiting from.

The Washington-based Tax Policy Center estimates that about 47 percent of Americans will pay no federal income taxes at all for 2009.  Either their incomes were too low, or they qualified for enough credits, deductions, and exemptions to eliminate their liability. (See related report [PDF])

J.D. Foster, a senior fellow at The Heritage Foundation, says it is pretty noteworthy when a center-left organization like the Tax Policy Center is pointing out that an enormous portion of Americans are not paying any income tax.

“When you’re in a situation where half the people are not paying taxes into the government, there’s very little check on the size of the government because people are getting it for free. That’s not a stable situation,” he notes.

“The other part of it is we have to explain that what that means is these people are effectively on welfare,” he adds. “You’re getting services from the government and you’re not paying for it.”

Foster says the country needs to explore tax reform ideas, but those ideas need to include making sure low- to middle-income Americans pay some nominal amount “just so they know they paid something into running their government.”

Netanyahu cancels trip to Obama’s nuclear summit

Reuters (Link) - Douglas Hamilton & Dan Williams (April 9, 2010)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cancelled a planned trip to Washington next week for President Barack Obama’s 47-country nuclear security conference.

He made the decision after learning Egypt and Turkey intended to raise the issue of Israel’s assumed atomic arsenal at the meeting, a senior government official said on Friday.

Israel is believed to be the only nuclear-armed power in the Middle East, but has never confirmed or denied it. It has not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Netanyahu saw Obama at the White House late last month to discuss the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process. But they failed to see eye to eye and bilateral ties remain strained.

“The prime minister has decided to cancel his trip to Washington to attend the nuclear conference next week, after learning that some countries including Egypt and Turkey plan to say Israel must sign the NPT,” the official said.

MEPs seek change to Lisbon Treaty to accommodate new colleagues

EU Observer (Link) - Andrew Willis (April 8, 2010)

Keen to see 18 new brethren join their parliamentary flock, the European Parliament’s constitutional affairs committee has given member states the nod to push ahead with changes to the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, just months after it was finally ratified.

Voting on two reports by centre-right Spanish MEP Inigo Mendez de Vigo on Wednesday (7 April), committee members supported a member state proposal to alter the EU rulebook, adding that an Intergovernmental Conference rather than a time-consuming Convention would be sufficient to discuss the necessary changes.

“The European Council now has a green light to take the decision next June in a brief Intergovernmental Conference,” said Mr Mendez de Vigo. “We are not going to call for a Convention beforehand as this is a transitional and exceptional measure that will not constitute, in any way, a precedent for the future.”

Elections to the European chamber were held last June under the EU’s old rulebook, the Nice Treaty, which sets the number of MEPs at 736. But the eventual completion by member states of a hugely drawn out ratification process late last year ushered in Lisbon Treaty rules on 1 December 2009, allowing for 751 MEPs.

Unexpected rise in US jobless claims

Financial Times (Link) - Alan Rappeport (April 8, 2010)

The number of US workers claiming jobless benefits for the first time recorded an unexpected rise last week, diminishing some of the recent signs of hope for the labour market.

Initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 to 460,000 last week, labour department figures showed on Thursday. Economists were expecting claims to decline.

However, the total number of Americans claiming jobless benefits fell, declining by 131,000 to 4.55m. Analysts say that the recent declines in continuing claims reflect a combination of increased hiring and of unemployed workers seeing their benefits expire.

“Even after recent declines, the level of claims is higher than one would expect it to be if private non-farm payrolls were really poised to begin sustained gains,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at MFR.

Economists argue that new claims need to fall to the low 400,000 level before the economy can consistently begin to create jobs. Last week, labour department figures showed that the US added 162,000 jobs in March, its best performance in three years.

But on Wednesday, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, urged caution over the labour market, warning that hiring remained “very weak” and that some of the economy’s toughest problems are in the jobs market.

Exclusive: World’s ‘Most Dangerous Islamist’ Alive, Well, and Living in Pennsylvania

Family Security Matters (Link) - Paul Williams, PhD (April 7, 2010)

The most dangerous Islamist in the world is neither Afghani nor Arab. He comes from neither Sudan nor Somalia. And he resides in neither the mountains of Pakistan nor the deserts of the Palestinian territories.

This individual has toppled the secular government of Turkey and established madrassahs throughout the world.

His schools indoctrinate children in the tenets of radical Islam and prepare adolescents for the Islamization of the world.

More than 90 of these madrassahs have been established as charter schools throughout the United States. They are funded by American taxpayers.
One of these charter schools – Tarek ibn Zayed Academy (TiZA) in Minnesota – is so radically Islamic and subversive in nature that the Minnesota Department of Education issued two citations against it and the American Civil Liberties Union is suing it.

Dozens of his universities, including the Faith University in Istabul, train young men to become lawyers, accountants, and political leaders so that they can take an active part in the restoration of the Ottoman Empire and the Islamization of the Western World.

He also allegedly operates compounds to train jihadis in the tactics of guerilla warfare.

This individual has amasssed a fortune – over $30 billion – for the creation of a universal caliphate.

His name is Fethullah Gulen and he resides not in the wilds of southern Turkey – but the mountains of Northeastern Pennsylvania.

Israel is ‘main threat to Middle East peace’: Turkey

Breitbart (Link) - AFP (April 7, 2010)

The prime minister of Turkey, Israel’s only ally in the Muslim world, on Wednesday branded the Jewish state the “principal threat to peace” in the Middle East.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s remarks to reporters at a breakfast meeting in Paris marked a new low in rapidly deteriorating relations between Israel and Turkey, which once had close military and political ties.

“If a country uses disproportionate force in Palestine, in Gaza -- uses phosphorous shells -- we’re not going to say ‘bravo’,” he declared, referring to Israel January 2009 offensive against Hamas-controlled Gaza.

Jim’s Mailbox

Jim Sinclair’s MineSet (Link) - JB Slear (April 6, 2010)

I was able to go to Toronto this past Thursday to attend a presentation by Mr. Sinclair to address what is currently going on in the world, including finances of course, which is his specialty. I regard him as one of the premier authorities on gold and currencies in the world, and as such value his opinion highly. I took copious amounts of notes, and tried, to the best of my ability to record precisely what he said and what he meant and pass them along to you all to make what you will of them, and to take whatever action you feel appropriate in your personal situation. After hearing him live, there is no question that what you read on the website is exactly what he thinks and sees going on. 50 years of experience in the investment world, at all levels does count for something. You decide what. The notes are in the order things were presented, including an hour and a half question and answer where Jim fielded all questions from the folks that were there. Some themes are repeated for emphasis. I recorded them as they came.

1. Get a copy, if possible, of the BBC movie, “The Last Days of Lehman Brothers” it is exactly what occurred. They were flushed and allowed to go down. Those that did so made billions.

2. The same people that sold Greece the products to hide the true condition of their finances ratted them out and are hugely short of Greek debt at this time.

3. The more these people win at what they do, the more powerful they become.

4. The failure of Lehman set off the bankruptcy(s) that allowed government money (your money) to flow to large institutions, who were the winners on the bet.

5. The next phase of problems will come about because of a loss of confidence in currencies themselves.

Jordan Readying to Discard Treaty with Israel?

Bible Prophecy Today (Link) - Stan Goodenough (April 6, 2010)

Jordan’s Abd’allah has capped months of firing increasingly critical comments at Israel with an interview indicating he is preparing to tear up his country’s peace treaty with the Jewish state.

The Israel-Jordan Treaty of Peace was signed in October 1994 - under the approving eye of President Bill Clinton - normalizing relations between the two states after more than 60 years of war, and purportedly finally resolving territorial disputes between the two countries.

It was de facto, however, an agreement between the people of Israel - who almost entirely supported and welcomed the treaty - and the Jordanian government under Abd’allah’s father, King Hussein; Jordan as a nation did not approve it and many Jordanians have called for it to be annulled.

Abd’allah suggested in his interview with the Wall Street Journal Monday that he regretted his father’s decision to sign.

“For the first time since my father made peace with Israel,” he said, “our relationship with Israel is at an all time low. It hasn’t been as bad as it is today and as tense as it is today.

“The political trust is gone,” said the Hashemite; “there is no real economic relationship between Jordan and Israel.”

Magnitude 7.8 quake shakes Indonesia’s Sumatra

Yahoo! News (Link) - Reuters - Ed Davies (April 6, 2010)

A major earthquake of 7.8 magnitude struck off the coast of Aceh on the Indonesian island of Sumatra on Wednesday, but there were no immediate reports of a tsunami or casualties.

A Reuters photographer on Simeulue island, south of Aceh, said there was panic and electricity was cut off after the quake. Metro TV reported that people rushed to higher ground in some areas.

The quake was centered 204 km (127 miles) west-northwest of the coastal town of Sibolga and was at a depth of 46 km (28.6 miles), the U.S. Geological Survey said. It had initially reported the quake’s magnitude at 7.6.

The Reuters witness said there were at least three aftershocks.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said there was no threat of a destructive widespread tsunami. However, it added: “There is the possibility of a local tsunami that could affect coasts” no more than 100 km (62 miles) from the epicenter of the quake.

In December 2004, a magnitude 9.15 quake off the coast of Sumatra’s Aceh province triggered an Indian Ocean tsunami that killed about 226,000 people in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand and nine other countries.

Israeli FM warns Palestinians not to declare state

Google News (Link) - AP - Matti Friedman (April 5, 2010)

Israel’s hard-line foreign minister warned Palestinians against plans to unilaterally declare independence next year, saying in an interview Tuesday that such a move could prompt Israel to annex parts of the West Bank and annul past peace agreements.

Avigdor Lieberman also made harsh comments about Turkey, Israel’s increasingly alienated ally, saying the Turkish prime minister was coming to resemble Libyan ruler Moammar Gadhafi.

Lieberman, who heads an ultranationalist party, has become known for a belligerent tone that has earned him critics abroad and inside Israel.

His remarks Tuesday on Palestinian independence took aim at a Palestinian policy that has emerged as U.S. attempts to restart peace talks have stalled.

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, whose Western-backed administration has a limited governing role in the Israeli-controlled West Bank, announced plans to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state, possibly as early as 2011 — even without a peace deal.

National debt seen heading for crisis level

San Francisco Chronicle (Link) - Carolyn Lochhead (April 5, 2010)

Health care may have been the last big bang of the Obama presidency.

With ferocious speed, the financial crisis, recession and efforts to combat the recession have swung the U.S. debt from worrisome to ruinous, promising to handcuff the administration.

Lost amid last month’s passage of the new health care law, the Congressional Budget Office issued a report showing that within this decade, President Obama’s own budget sends the U.S. government to a potential tipping point where the debt reaches 90 percent of gross domestic product.

Economists Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University have recently shown that a 90 percent debt-to-GDP ratio usually touches off a crisis.

This year, the debt will reach 63 percent of GDP, a ratio that has ignited crises in smaller wealthy nations. Fiscal crises gripped Canada, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Ireland when their debts were below where the United States is shortly headed.

Immigration to Israel from North America up by 20% in 2010

Haaretz (Link) - Cnaan Liphshiz (April 4, 2010)

Immigration to Israel from North America during the first quarter increased by more than 20 percent from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Nefesh B’Nefesh and the Jewish Agency, pointing to a busy year.

Nefesh B’Nefesh, a nonprofit organization that handles immigration from North America and Britain along with the Jewish Agency, says 447 people have come from North America since January 1. Of them, 89 arrived in January, 186 in February and 172 in March. During the first quarter of 2009 - a relatively good year for immigration from across the Atlantic - 370 North Americans came here.

“The first quarter of every year is usually slow, with most olim arriving in summer,” said Danny Oberman, Nefesh B’Nefesh’s executive vice president. “The fact that we’re seeing more olim arriving this early could be a good indication that 2010 will be good for aliyah.”

The Jewish Agency compiled a report on immigration to Israel from all over the world, but it covers only January and February. It shows that aliyah in those months was 59 percent higher than in January and February of 2009.

6.9-Magnitude Quake in Baja California Felt on West Coast

The New York Times (Link) - Randa C. Archibold (April 4, 2010)

An earthquake centered in Baja California in Mexico shook buildings as far north as Los Angeles Sunday afternoon.

The earthquake was centered in the Baja California, about 108 miles east-southeast of Tijuana, the United States Geological Service said. The quake had a magnitude of 6.9.

High-rise buildings in Los Angeles and San Diego rocked back and forth as the quake hit. The earthquake shook houses in Los Angeles for roughly a minute, and aftershocks then followed.

There were no immediate reports of damage or injury. KABC-TV reported some people were stuck in an elevator at the Disneyland Hotel in Anaheim.

The Los Angeles Fire Department went on earthquake alert and began inspecting overpasses for damage.