Watchman Newsletter

Strong 6.3 Quake Hits Near Tonga

Fox News (Link) - AP (February 13, 2010)

A strong magnitude 6.3 earthquake hit near the South Pacific kingdom of Tonga on Saturday, the U.S. Geological Survey reported, but no tsunami alert was issued and there were no immediate reports of injury or damage.

The quake, centered 60 miles southwest of the capital, Nuku’alofa, was a shallow 6 miles below the ocean’s surface, the agency said.

It hit as Tonga — a 170-island archipelago about halfway between Australia and Tahiti — braced for tropical cyclone Rene, currently a Category 3 cyclone packing winds up to up to 93 miles an hour. On its present track, the storm is gathering strength and could pass close to the islands that are home to more than 100,000 people.

In September, nine people in Tonga were killed on the northern island of Nuiatoputapu by a tsunami spawned by an earthquake off Samoa. The tsunami killed 183 people in Samoa and another 34 in American Samoa.

The most recent local temblor was a powerful 6.8 magnitude quake that struck about 75 miles out to sea off Nuku’alofa on Nov. 25, sending panicked residents into the streets at night. There was no serious damage or injuries.

Tonga is part of the Pacific “ring of fire,” a series of rifts in the earth’s surface and volcanoes that reach from Chile through Alaska and down the western Pacific to south of the islands state.

Obama Making Plans to Use Executive Power

The New York Times (Link) - Peter Baker (February 12, 2010)

With much of his legislative agenda stalled in Congress, President Obama and his team are preparing an array of actions using his executive power to advance energy, environmental, fiscal and other domestic policy priorities.

Mr. Obama has not given up hope of progress on Capitol Hill, aides said, and has scheduled a session with Republican leaders on health care later this month. But in the aftermath of a special election in Massachusetts that cost Democrats unilateral control of the Senate, the White House is getting ready to act on its own in the face of partisan gridlock heading into the midterm campaign.

“We are reviewing a list of presidential executive orders and directives to get the job done across a front of issues,” said Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff.

Any president has vast authority to influence policy even without legislation, through executive orders, agency rule-making and administrative fiat. And Mr. Obama’s success this week in pressuring the Senate to confirm 27 nominations by threatening to use his recess appointment power demonstrated that executive authority can also be leveraged to force action by Congress.

Ahmadinejad: Finish Israel off if it attacks

YNet News (Link) - Reuters (February 11, 2010)

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told his Syrian counterpart that Israel should be resisted and finished off if it launched military action in the region, state broadcaster IRIB reported on Thursday.

“We have reliable information ... that the Zionist regime is after finding a way to compensate for its ridiculous defeats from the people of Gaza and Lebanon’s Hezbollah,” he told Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

“If the Zionist regime should repeat its mistakes and initiate a military operation, then it must be resisted with full force to put an end to it once and for all,” Ahmadinejad said in the telephone conversation on Wednesday evening.

Ahmadinejad, who has often predicted the imminent demise of the Jewish state, said Iran would remain on the side of regional nations including Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.

Ahmadinejad Says Iran Is Now a ‘Nuclear State’

Fox News (Link) - AP (February 11, 2010)

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed Thursday that Iran has produced its first batch of uranium enriched to a higher level, saying his country will not be bullied by the West into curtailing its nuclear program a day after the U.S. imposed new sanctions.

Ahmadinejad reiterated to hundreds of thousands of cheering Iranians on the anniversary of the 1979 foundation of the Islamic republic that the country was now a “nuclear state,” an announcement he’s made before. He insisted that Iran had no intention of building nuclear weapons.

It was not clear how much enriched material had actually been produced just two days after the process was announced to have started.

The United States and some of its allies accuse Tehran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to build nuclear weapons but Tehran denies the charge, saying the program is just geared toward generating electricity.

“I want to announce with a loud voice here that the first package of 20 percent fuel was produced and provided to the scientists,” he said.

Syria debating attacks against Israel

WorldNet Daily (Link) - Aaron Klein (February 11, 2010)

Syria has been contemplating launching low-grade attacks against Jewish communities in the Golan Heights to pressure Israel into negotiations aimed at relinquishing the strategic territory, a senior Israeli security official told WND.

The official said the Syrian government was debating whether to launch guerilla warfare and possibly sporadic mortar and rocket attacks targeting the Golan. The attacks would be blamed on an “independent” group operating out of Syria, the official said.

However, Syria apparently has backed down from the plan after Iran expressed interest in using the low-grade attacks to escalate into a larger conflict between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, the official said. Such a conflict would distract Israel.

The official said Syria is afraid of a large conflict or an outright war with Israel.

Just last week, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman warned Syria’s president, Bashar Assad, that any war with his country would topple his regime.

“Assad should know that if he attacks, he will not only lose the war. Neither he nor his family will remain in power,” Lieberman said last Thursday. Lieberman was responding to a Syrian threat against Israeli cities one day earlier.

Obama ‘Agnostic’ on Deficit Cuts, Won’t Prejudge Tax Increases

Business Week (Link) - Rich Miller (February 11, 2010)

President Barack Obama said he is “agnostic” about raising taxes on households making less than $250,000 as part of a broad effort to rein in the budget deficit.

Obama, in a Feb. 9 Oval Office interview, said that a presidential commission on the budget needs to consider all options for reducing the deficit, including tax increases and cuts in spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

“The whole point of it is to make sure that all ideas are on the table,” the president said in the interview with Bloomberg BusinessWeek, which will appear on newsstands Friday. “So what I want to do is to be completely agnostic, in terms of solutions.”

Obama repeatedly vowed during the 2008 presidential election campaign that he would not raise taxes on individuals making less than $200,000 and households earning less than $250,000 a year. When senior White House economic adviser Lawrence H. Summers and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner suggested in August that the administration might be open to going back on that pledge, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs quickly reiterated the president’s promise.

Lebanese PM: We’ll back Hezbollah if war with Israel breaks out

YNet News (Link) (February 10, 2010)

Days after Syria and Israel exchanged hostile accusations, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri told the BBC he is concerned about “escalating threats” posed to the Middle East by Israel.

In an interview published overnight Wednesday, Hariri told the BBC that Israeli planes were entering Lebanese airspace every day, and he feared the prospect of another war with Israel.

He accused Israel of making a huge mistake by allegedly threatening both Lebanon and neighboring Syria.

“We hear a lot of Israeli threats day in and day out, and not only threats… We see what’s happening on the ground and in our airspace and what’s happening all the time during the past two months - every day we have Israeli planes entering Lebanese airspace,” Hariri was quoted by the BBC as saying.

“This is something that is escalating, and this is something that is really dangerous,” he said.

Hariri added that Lebanon was united, and that his government would stand by Hezbollah - the Lebanese terror group which fought Israel in 2006.

“I think they’re (Israel) betting that there might be some division in Lebanon, if there is a war against us,” he said, “Well, there won’t be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people.”

Illinois earthquake: How bad is a 3.8 magnitude?

The Christian Science Monitor (Link) - Chris Gaylord (February 10, 2010)

An Illinois earthquake woke residents with a good rattling Wednesday morning. The 3.8-magnitude tremor struck 45 miles northwest of Chicago at 4 a.m., according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

Originally measured as a 4.3 quake, the shock quickly seized national headlines. But later estimates lowered the count to a 3.8 on the Richter Scale.

How big of a difference is that? And how common are 3.8-magnitude earthquakes?

The Richter Scale considers anything between a 3.0 and 3.9 to be a “minor” tremor. Last month’s Haiti quake, by contrast, was a 7.0 or “major” shake. But just because today’s measurement is about half of Haiti’s doesn’t mean it was half the power. In fact, the January earthquake was about 1,600 times the magnitude that hit Illinois. That’s because the Richter Scale is logarithmic – the jump from 3.0 to 4.0 represent 10 times higher magnitude, 3 to 5 means 100 times, and so on.

“Minor” earthquakes are actually quite common. Approximately 130,000 earthquakes between 3.0 and 3.9 strike around the world every year – that’s 356 a day. In fact, three other such shakes hit the US today: two in Alaska, one in Puerto Rico. And in all, 773 earthquakes have shaken the US in the past 7 days. About 40 were above a 3.0.

EU President’s secret bid for economic power

The Independent UK (Link) - Sean O’Grady & Vanessa Mock (February 10, 2010)

The new President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, is using the financial crisis sweeping the eurozone to launch an audacious grab for power over national budgets, leaked documents reveal.

The Independent has seen a secret annexe to the letter being sent by Mr. Van Rompuy to European Union heads of government inviting them to the summit to be held tomorrow in Brussels. In an early and muscular assertion of authority over national governments and over the EU Commission, the Van Rompuy note states: “Members of the European Council are responsible for the economic strategy in their government. They should do the same at EU level. Whether it is called co-ordination of policies or economic government, only the European Council is capable of delivering and sustaining a common European strategy for more growth and more jobs.”

Mr. Van Rompuy states that “the crisis has revealed our weaknesses,” adding: “Budgetary plans, structural reform programmes and climate change reporting should be presented simultaneously to the Commission [his italics]. This will provide a comprehensive overview.”

An EU source explained: “It has become clear to everyone that this economic crisis can’t be solved by individual member states, such as Germany helping out Greece. What we need is the same kind of mechanism that we have now imposed on Greece in order to monitor and survey eurozone countries. So the idea is to put all European economies under surveillance. You can expect some important decisions to be taken this week.”

Germany preparing to bail out Greece

EU Observer (Link) - Andrew Willis (February 10, 2010)

Clear signs emerged on Tuesday (9 February) that Germany and other eurozone members are considering a bailout plan for Greece.

Reports suggest financial support is likely to come in the form of guarantees or bilateral loans, with EU leaders set to discuss the exact details when they meet for an informal summit on economic issues in Brussels on Thursday.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told officials in Berlin on Monday that he had concluded there “was no alternative” to a rescue plan, reports the Wall Street Journal citing an anonymous source.

The Financial Times quotes German officials as saying that the steep decline in the euro and pressure on bond prices has forced Berlin to “take a significant step” to deal with the Greek debt crisis.

Europe’s Choice: Dismantle The Euro, Or Cede All National Sovereignty To Brussels

Business Insider (Link) - Joe Weisenthal (February 9, 2010)

We said in early December that the Euro breakup would be the story of 2010, and just over a month in that prediction has shown to be right on. It’s even overshadowing (by far) concerns over a China bubble, or at least a China slowdown.

A piece in Der Spiegel highlights the real problem that Europe faces. It’s not just debt. It’s politics.

As the early euro-skeptics warned, coordinating a single monetary authority across nations with their own political systems and economic objectives wouldn’t work. The founders of the euro actually knew this, but they they thought they could cheat by imposing deficit limits on each country, which were stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty.

EU votes in new commission after long delay

EU Observer (Link) - Honor Mahony (February 9, 2010)

The European Parliament has given the green light to the new European Commission, ending an eight month hiatus in the governance of the union at the height of the economic crisis.

European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso and his 26-member college received 488 votes in favour, 137 against while 72 MEPs abstained.

The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the largest group in the parliament, and the Liberal group pledged their support for Mr Barroso and his team ahead of the ballot. The Socialists, after some internal debate, also said they would vote in favour.

The Greens and the far left voted against while the anti-federalist ECR - citing democracy grounds - abstained.

Prior to the vote, the centre-right Portuguese politician said his team “has new ideas and experiences” and reflects a “broad range of views.”

He called on European politicians to move away from the “intellectual glamour” of pessimism and instead made a plea for “boldness.”

Javier Solana joins Brookings

Politico (Link) - Laura Rozen (February 9, 2010)

Washington will have an important new resource as it moves into the tough pressure stage of its Iran policy.

The top European nuclear negotiator with Iran for the past several years, Javier Solana, is joining the Brookings Institution as a distinguished senior fellow.

Solana, former NATO Secretary General and EU high rep for foreign and security policy, will advise Brookings’ Foreign Policy program, headed by Martin Indyk, and the Global Economy and Development program, headed by former UNDP chief Kemal Dervish.

“We are extremely pleased to have Dr. Solana with us,” a Brookings hand writes. . . .

“We are deeply honored that Dr. Solana has agreed to join Brookings and look forward to benefiting from his vast experience dealing with the world’s most critical challenges,” Brookings’ President Strobe Talbott said in a subsequent statement. “With his many years of outstanding service as Europe’s leading diplomat and as leader of NATO ... he has been a major figure on the world stage who has showed extraordinary leadership on such international crises as the Yugoslav and Kosovo Wars and the efforts to bring peace to the Middle East and curb Iran’s nuclear program.”

Solana will be based in Spain and travel frequently to Washington.

Psalms 83 Revisited?

The Omega Letter (Link) - Jack Kinsella (February 9, 2010)

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday that Iran is set to deliver a “punch” that will stun world powers during this week’s 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution.

“The Iranian nation, with its unity and God’s grace, will punch the arrogance (Western powers) on the 22nd of Bahman (February 11) in a way that will leave them stunned,” Khamenei, who is also Iran’s commander-in-chief, told a gathering of air force personnel.

There’s something strange taking place in the Middle East. All the signs appear to be pointing toward an imminent outbreak of hostilities against Israel.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted on Sunday as saying that Iran will “deliver a harsh blow to global arrogance” on February 11.

It is not clear whether he’s referring to the ongoing demonstrations in Tehran.

Iran’s opposition group, called the “Green Way,” has also designated February 11 as “the day Iranians demand their rights back” as citizens. February 11 is also the date set aside to commemorate Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Israel and Syria’s War Banter

Koinonia House (Link) - Chuck Missler (February 9, 2010)

Despite the recent snow, things have been heating up between Israel and Syria. Friction over the stockpile of Hezbollah missiles in southern Lebanon has sparked off volleys of threats between Israel and its northern neighbors. Amid fears that a war between Israel and Syria is imminent, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered to restart peace talks.

Israel and Syria have been glaring at each other and occasionally going at it tooth and missile for more than sixty years. Even though Syria and Israel have not fought directly in decades, Syria is Iran’s strategic ally and both countries supply the terror groups Hezbollah and Hamas with weapons. The situation got tense last week when Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak told a group of IDF officers that without a peace agreement Israel and Syria could easily go to war. Israel has also accused Syrian-backed Hezbollah of stockpiling 40,000 rockets along the Lebanese border with Israel.

Warnings have been exchanged on both sides. Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid Moallem told Israel not to test Syria. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad insisted that Syria would support Lebanon if Israel attacked. Israel’s foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman warned that if Israel and Syria went to war, Syria would be beaten and the Assad family would lose their regime.

On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made an effort to calm the escalation by telling his cabinet that Israel was open to direct peace talks with Syria. “We did it with Egypt and Jordan, and we want to achieve similar agreements with the Palestinians and the Syrians,” he said. “I hope that we are on the brink of renewing negotiations with the Palestinians, and we are open to renewing the process with the Syrians as well.”

Iran ramps up nuclear program, threatens Israel

Israel Today (Link) (February 8, 2010)

On the same day that Iran announced it would begin enriching its uranium stockpile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei declared that not even the might of the West can save Israel now.

Iranian media cited Khamenei as telling the head of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement on Sunday that Israel’s destruction is imminent according to the will of Allah, and that the support of America and certain European nations could do nothing to thwart the Jewish state’s downfall.

Also Sunday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization to begin enriching the nation’s uranium stockpile to a level of 20 percent and to build an additional 10 uranium enrichment facilities.

The move was seen as a rejection of a Western diplomatic deal whereby Iran’s uranium would be enriched abroad to ensure it did not reach weapons grade. US and European leaders said they were becoming fed up with Iran’s defiance, though they have proved in the past that such threats have no teeth.

The looming threat is escalating the likelihood that Israel will be forced to intervene militarily to at least set back Iran’s nuclear program, lest it face a very real existential threat.

But Iran is nearly prepared to repel an Israeli air raid thanks to an expected delivery of advanced Russian-made anti-aircraft missile batteries. Iranian and Russian officials last Thursday confirmed that Moscow, despite Israeli objections, will honor its contract to deliver the S-300 missile systems to the Islamic Republic very soon.

Will Baby Boomers Bankrupt Social Security?

CNBC (Link) - Rob Reuteman (February 8, 2010)

As the record federal budget deficit draws increasing scrutiny from Washington to Wall Street to Main Street, deficit hawks may take aim at entitlement programs including Social Security.

And, the nearly 80 million Baby Boomers phasing into retirement will set in motion a dynamic that—if not addressed by Congress—could result in the next generation getting fewer benefits.

However, despite fears that Boomers will trigger a collapse of Social Security, experts say the system can and will survive for decades and generations to come.

Congress made significant fixes to Social Security during the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s, and there appears to be a slowly gathering political will to make it solvent for the next 75 years.

By 2017, Social Security is expected to start paying out more than it collects in payroll taxes, according to the 2009 Annual Report from the Social Security and Medicare Board of Trustees. There is currently a large surplus, but it will be drained by the year 2037. At that point, Social Security will only be able to pay out 75 percent of its benefits.

Syria slips Hizballah missiles for destroying Israeli cities

DEBKAfile (Link) (February 7, 2010)

The secret transfer of the mobile surface-to-surface Syrian-made Fateh-110 (range 250km) missile to Hizballah sparked the prediction Friday, Feb. 5 from an unnamed US official that cross-border arms smuggling from Syria into Lebanon outside state control was “very dangerous” and “paved the way to war similar to Israel-Hizballah conflict of 2006.” DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Israel warned Syria through at least two diplomatic channels against Hizballah using this lethal weapon, which is capable of reaching almost every Israel city.

Our sources disclose: Syria pulled the wool of Israel’s eyes for the transfer by openly training Hizballah in the use of SA-2 and SA-6 surface-to-surface missiles. Israel had warned it would deem their passage into Lebanon Syrian casus belli by Syria.

The Fateh-110 is still more lethal, accurate and dangerous than the SA-2 and SA-3. it confronts Israel now with a Hizballah armed with a solid-fuel propellant, road-mobile, single-stage, short-range ballistic system weighing three tons with a half-ton warhead and a range of 250 kilometers. It is not deployed in surface batteries but fired from mobile launchers, which the solid propellant renders capable of firing at speed with little advance preparation, before returning to the fortified underground silos Hizballah has sunk in mountain areas across Lebanon.

These features make the Fateh-110 a very tough target for Israeli bombers to strike.