June 13, 2011

The coming global financial crisis Politics virtually guarantee that the global economy won’t go into crisis in 2011. Politics make it extremely unlikely that the global economy will slow down as much as the market seems to fear. Politics, in fact, put a safety net under the global economy this year. And politics also virtually guarantee another, deeper crisis in 2012 or 2013. I’d bet 2013. How come? You see, just about every politician in the world is trying to kick an economic problem down the road into 2012 or 2013. I think they’ll succeed in postponing the day of reckoning in 2011 using a combination of funny accounting, additional spending and subsidies. But the price for that postponement will be that problems will be bigger and harder to truly solve in 2012 or 2013 than they are now. And that will raise the odds that the global economy will face another serious crisis -- just five years or so after the last one. This kick-it-down-the-road effort is most obvious in the eurozone, where the effort to put together a new rescue package for Greece really comes down to putting off a Greek default from 2012 to 2013 or 2014. But the effect is also visible in the United States, where I think the most likely result of negotiations in the U.S. to raise the debt ceiling will be to kick the problem into the 2012 election campaign, with a “solution” postponed to 2013. You can also see it in China, where the leadership that takes over in 2012 and 2013 from President Hu Jintao will be extremely reluctant to rock the boat until it’s firmly in power.


I'm a watchman for Christ, looking on the horizon in expectation for the fulfillment of God's Word.

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