Watchman Newsletter

Syria and Iran agree to cooperate on naval training

The Jerusalem Post (Link) - Contribution by Yaakov Katz (February 26, 2011)

Iran and Syria have agreed to cooperate on naval training, Reuters reported Iran’s official news agency saying on Saturday.

“The two parties will cooperate with each other in training issues and the exchange of personnel,” the Iranian news agency quoted the agreement, signed by the commanders of both navies, as saying.

The agreement came days after two Iranian warships – the Khark, which has 250 crew members and can carry three helicopters, and the Alvand, which is armed with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles – arrived at Syria’s Latakia seaport on Thursday through the Suez Canal.

The announcement of the cooperation agreement came the same day that Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said that Russia would fulfill its contractual obligation and complete the transfer of cruise missiles to Syria, according to an AFP report. The report said that news agencies in Moscow said the Kremlin did not intend to withdraw from the deal signed between the two countries in 2007, despite the objections of Israel and the United States.

Russia unveils huge rearmament drive

The Telegraph UK (Link) - Andrew Osborn (February 25, 2011)

The Kremlin has unveiled the biggest rearmament programme since the fall of the Soviet Union, saying it intends to buy 600 new planes, 100 new ships and 1,000 new helicopters within the next decade.

The ambitious overhaul will cost the equivalent of £406 billion and comes at a time when other countries around the world such as Britain are cutting their defence spending to try to balance their national budgets.

But with oil prices rising, Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, feels confident it can afford to upgrade its dilapidated Soviet-era military and believes it urgently needs to do so in order to confirm its self-proclaimed status as a major world power.

Vladimir Popovkin, Russia’s deputy defence minister, said the rearmament programme would be sweeping.

“The main task is the modernisation of the armed forces,” he said. “Nineteen trillion roubles (£406 billion) will be allocated for this. We are not interested in purchasing any foreign weapons or military equipment.”

Satellite Photos: More Nuclear Sites in Syria

Israel National News (Link) - Hillel Fendel (February 24, 2011)

Western intelligence agencies have detected another nuclear plant in Syria – in a Damascus suburb.

Following Israel’s bombing of a nuclear production plant in Syria over three years ago, another nuclear complex, albeit smaller, has now apparently been found, following close analysis of satellite photos.

A German newspaper, the Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), reports that it has received the photos, but will not publish them because inferences can be made as to when they were taken, and thus to who leaked them.

In addition, Washington’s Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) published photos on Wednesday of one of three more sites that are believed to be connected to the Al-Kibar facility.

5 Dollar Gas? Get Ready To Pay An Arm And A Leg For Gasoline

The Economic Collapse Blog (Link) (February 23, 2011)

One of the quickest ways to bring down the U.S. economy would be to dramatically increase the price of oil. Oil is the lifeblood of our economic system. Without it, our entire economy would come to a grinding halt. Almost every type of economic activity in this country depends on oil, and even a small rise in the price of oil can have a dramatic impact on economic growth. That is why so many economists are incredibly alarmed about what is happening in the Middle East right now. The revolution in Libya caused the price of WTI crude to soar more than 7 dollars on Tuesday alone. It closed at $93.57 on Tuesday and Brent crude actually hit $108.57 a barrel before settling back to $105.78 at the end of the day. Some analysts are warning that we could even see 5 dollar gas in the United States by the end of the year if rioting spreads to other oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia. With the Middle East in such a state of chaos right now it is hard to know exactly what is going to happen, but almost everyone agrees that if oil prices continue to rise at a rapid pace over the next several months it is going to have a devastating impact on economic growth all over the globe.

Right now the eyes of the world are on Libya. Libya is the 17th largest oil producer on the globe and it has the biggest proven oil reserves on the continent of Africa.

Libya only produces 2 percent of the oil in the world, but with global supplies so tight at the moment even a minor production disruption can have a dramatic impact on the price of oil.

A7 Exclusive: Tunisian Protesters Shouted ‘Death to the Jews!’

Israel National News (Link) - Chana Ya’ar (February 23, 2011)

Protesters demanding the ouster of their new unity government in Tunisia are also now calling for ‘Death to the Jews.’

A local source who spoke exclusively with Israel National News on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution warned this week “the situation is not getting better for the Jews,”

Tunisians took to the streets Sunday demanding the ouster of the country’s prime minister, Mohammed Ghanoucci, whom they denounced as part of the former regime, toppled three weeks ago. The demonstration followed by one day the resignation of four members of the country’s nascent unity government formed in the wake of the ex-ruler’s ouster.

What was not reported in the media, however, is the fact that in Sunday’s demonstration many of the hundreds of protesters were screaming as they marched, “Death to the Jews!”

“This is a new phenomenon,” said the source. “Until now, we have not heard this. Perhaps the people were thinking it, but we have not heard it. Now they feel free to say what they wish, what is in their hearts.”

Pirates Kill Christian Couple Devoted to Missions

CBN (Link) - John Jessup (February 23, 2011)

For the first time in modern history, four Americans have been shot and killed by pirates that have long plagued the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

The fate of the crew on board the Quest went off course Feb. 18 when Somali pirates seized the private, American-owned yacht.

The situation took a turn for the worst Tuesday morning, when U.S. naval warships heard gunfire. By the time authorities boarded the ship, they found all four Americans shot and killed.

“Despite immediate steps to provide life-saving care, all four of the hostages died of their wounds,” said Vice Adm. Mark Fox, commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.

The boat belonged to California couple Scott and Jean Adam, who’d been living on the ship and sailing the seas since 2002. According to their website, their mission was to travel to ports around the world distributing Bibles and “seeking fertile ground for the Word.”

EU tells Israel: Mideast turmoil makes peace talks imperative

Haaretz (Link) - AP (February 22, 2011)

The European Union is telling Israel that growing instability in the Middle East makes it imperative to immediately resume the stalled peace process with the Palestinians.

Hungary’s foreign minister Janos Martonyi, whose country currently chairs the EU, told his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Lieberman on Tuesday that time is pressing and that the Israeli-Palestinian talks remain the core issue.

Lieberman, who is holding talks with the EU as part of a decade-old association agreement, also said it was important to resume direct peace talks with the Palestinian Authority.

Palestinians insist they will not restart the talks until Israel halts settlement building in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which they want as a capital. Israel has accused the Palestinians of stalling and using the settlement construction as an excuse.

On Friday, the United States vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have condemned Israeli settlement construction. The resolution, which was proposed by the Palestinians and Arab states, had won the support of the other 14 members of the Council. †

Steel On Steel Persecution Update

Steel on Steel - Donald McElvaney (February 22, 2011)

Top Stories:

1. Official Recognition Eludes Christian Groups in Bhutan

2. Anti-Christian Speeches in Iran Led to Crackdown, Sources Say

3. Attacks on Indonesian Churches Spiked in 2010, Group Says

4. Nigerian Violence Claims Lives of Christians

5. Christian Leaders in Indonesia Decry Lax Security after Attacks

6. Christian Killed by Muslim Employer, Relatives Say

7. Christian Leaders in Nigeria Call Bauchi Violence Premeditated

Revolution and the Muslim World

Stratfor Global Intelligence (Link) - George Friedman (February 22, 2011)

The Muslim world, from North Africa to Iran, has experienced a wave of instability in the last few weeks. No regimes have been overthrown yet, although as of this writing, Libya was teetering on the brink.

There have been moments in history where revolution spread in a region or around the world as if it were a wildfire. These moments do not come often. Those that come to mind include 1848, where a rising in France engulfed Europe. There was also 1968, where the demonstrations of what we might call the New Left swept the world: Mexico City, Paris, New York and hundreds of other towns saw anti-war revolutions staged by Marxists and other radicals. Prague saw the Soviets smash a New Leftist government. Even China’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution could, by a stretch, be included. In 1989, a wave of unrest, triggered by East Germans wanting to get to the West, generated an uprising in Eastern Europe that overthrew Soviet rule.

Each had a basic theme. The 1848 uprisings attempted to establish liberal democracies in nations that had been submerged in the reaction to Napoleon. 1968 was about radical reform in capitalist society. 1989 was about the overthrow of communism. They were all more complex than that, varying from country to country. But in the end, the reasons behind them could reasonably be condensed into a sentence or two.

Unrest and the Libyan Military

Stratfor Global Intelligence (Link) (February 21, 2011)

Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has ordered the Libyan air force to fire on military installations in Libya, according to what the BBC has characterized as a reliable source. Al Jazeera has suggested that air force fighters have opened fire on crowds of protesters.

Though the latter would be particularly draconian, the more important question is whether these signs reflect a split within the regime and Gadhafi using military force to crush opposition to his regime emerging from the military or other security forces. Similar reports of the Libyan navy firing on targets onshore also are emerging, as well as reports that Gadhafi has given execution orders to soldiers who have refused to fire on Libyan protesters.

FBI: Muslim Brotherhood deeply rooted inside U.S.

WorldNet Daily (Link) - Paul Sperry (February 21, 2011)

Staff investigators with the House and Senate intelligence committees say they are probing the domestic security threat posed by the radical Muslim Brotherhood and, specifically, whether Brotherhood operatives have penetrated the U.S. government.

The true nature, ambitions and global reach of the Cairo-based Muslim Brotherhood suddenly have become the focus of debate in Washington, following unrest in Egypt and other parts of the Middle East.

As the Muslim Brotherhood threatens to effectively replace Egypt’s secular, pro-Western regime, the tentacles of its worldwide jihadist movement have reached deep into the Muslim community in America. Shockingly, federal court documents reveal that virtually every major Muslim organization in America is a front group for the Brotherhood. They also show that its U.S. network has raised millions of dollars for Hamas, al-Qaida and other terrorist groups.

“The most prominent Islamic organizations in the United States are all controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood,” said FBI veteran John Guandolo, who worked several Brotherhood-related terror cases out of the bureau’s Washington field office as a special agent after 9/11.

Earthquake Shakes Up Suez Canal as Iran Warships Approach

Israel National News (Link) - Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu (February 21, 2011)

An earthquake measuring 5.9 on the Richter scale shook up residents at the entrance to the Suez Canal early Monday morning, 48 hours before two Iranian ships, a frigate and a supply vessel, are expected to enter the canal.

The National Institute for Astronomical and Geophysical Research reported that tremors from the 3 a.m. quake lasted for 27 minutes, but caused no damage.

The ships had originally been expected to enter the Suez today (Monday), but Egyptian officials announced the delay this morning, without explanation.

Iran inexplicably announced Sunday morning that two of its warships had crossed the Suez, a report that was thoroughly denied by Egyptian authorities. Iranian media did not mention the ships on Monday, and the false report may have been for local consumption.

No Iranian ship has been allowed to pass through the Suez Canal since Iran’s 1979 overthrow of the Shah and Egypt’s signing of a peace treaty with Israel the same year.

IDF deputy chief: Israel’s army needs faith in God more than tanks

Haaretz (Link) - Yair Ettinger (February 21, 2011)

The events currently shaking the Arab world “were ordained from above” by a guiding hand, Israel Defense Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Yair Naveh said on Sunday. Naveh added that the Israeli army needed faith in God now more than its supply of planes and tanks.

Naveh made the statements while accompanying Israel’s two chief rabbis, Rabbi Yona Metzger and Rabbi Shlomo Amar, on their visit to the chief military rabbi’s office at the Tzrifin base.

In remarks during the visit captured by the pro-settler news outlet Arutz 7, Naveh called Israel an island of calm in the storm of the Middle East, turmoil that had not been foreseen by intelligence officials despite their good work.

“But it was ordained from above,” he said, “and we don’t know where it will lead, but it’s clear to us that there is a hand from above.”

Naveh said supposedly democratic forces in the Middle East have always been supplanted by negative extremist and religious forces. Addressing the chief rabbis, Naveh called the IDF a Jewish army, an army of believers and an army that from the beginning always “knew how to create the right balance among communities represented in it, all the religions represented in it, but always leading with the power of faith and adherence to mitzvot [religious commandments].”

He said in recent years, the army had become more welcoming to religious soldiers. †

The Region: Egypt gets its Khomeini

The Jerusalem Post (Link) - Barry Rubin (February 20, 2011)

Friday, February 18 may be a turning point in Egyptian history. On that day Yusuf al-Qaradawi spoke to a giant cheering crowd in Tahrir Square.

He praised the army – to ward off it’s repression and to encourage it to support a transformation of the country.

He preached caution and patience, working with the army.

And he also lavished praise on the pro-Islamist chairman of the committee to write the new constitution, which may not be a good sign at all.

There is one easily missed word in his speech that is the most significant. That word is “hypocrites.” In the Islamist lexicon, hypocrites means Muslims who do not practice “true” Islam according to the radicals. To take Egypt out of the hands of “hypocrites” is to put it onto the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood – or at least similarly minded people – which, contrary to the best and the brightest policy makers, intelligence analysts, experts and journalists, is not a moderate organization.

Analysis: Yusuf al-Qaradawi – a ‘man for all seasons’

The Jerusalem Post (Link) - Oren Kessler (February 20, 2011)

A disparate mix of Egyptians packed into Cairo’s Tahrir Square for Friday’s prayer service-cum-political rally: young and old, secular and devout, Muslims and Christians.

At least a million people filled the now-emblematic square, but the event was most remarkable for the presence of one man – Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, arguably the most influential Sunni Muslim cleric in the world, making his first public appearance in Egypt in 50 years.

“Don’t fight history,” he urged the assembled crowd, and the millions more watching the televised address live. “You can’t delay the day when it starts. The Arab world has changed.”

As often in the past, Qaradawi spoke of democracy and pluralism. He urged the army officers temporarily ruling Egypt to deliver on their promises of handing power to a civil government founded on principles of pluralism and freedom, and cleanse the cabinet of former Mubarak cronies.