Watchman Newsletter

And the winner is...Turkey

YNet News (Link) - Manfred Gerstenfeld (March 2, 2011)

For the moment, Turkey seems to be a major winner in the midst of the unrest in the Mideastern and North African Muslim world. This is not a result of anything it has done, but derives largely from the loss of power of other nations.

As far as population is concerned, there are three major nations in the Middle East – Turkey, Iran and Egypt, each with 70-80 million inhabitants. Saudi Arabia has a substantially higher Gross Domestic Product per capita than all three, but its population of 25 million is much smaller.

After Mubarak’s fall, it will take many years before another internationally relevant leader emerges in Egypt. In the meantime, Iran is trying to use an increasing power vacuum to raise its own profile. Sending warships through the Suez Canal to Syria is a small but visible sign of this. Iran also hopes to benefit from the partial shift away of Western focus upon it, as there are so many problems elsewhere in the Muslim world. At the same time, Iran is vulnerable as it has to cope once again with growing internal protests.

The War Against the Christians

National Review Online (Link) - Clifford D. May (March 2, 2011)

Imagine if Muslims in Europe were being arrested for nothing more than peacefully practicing their religion. Imagine if Muslims in South America were being sentenced to death for “insulting” Jesus. Imagine if mosques were being bombed and burned by terrorists in a growing list of Christian-majority countries.

Now here’s what you don’t need to imagine because it is all too real: In recent days, Christian churches have been bombed in Egypt, Iraq, Nigeria, and the Philippines. In Indonesia a mob of 1,000 Muslims burned down two Christian churches because, according to one commentator, local Islamic authorities determined there were “too many faithful and too many prayers.” In Iran, scores of Christians have been arrested. In Pakistan, a Christian woman received the death penalty for the “crime” of insulting Islam; the governor of Punjab promised to pardon her — and was then assassinated for the “crime” of blasphemy.

I could provide dozens more examples of the persecution and, in many cases, “cleansing” of Christians in what we have come to call the Muslim world. If the situation were reversed, if such a war were being waged against Muslims, it would be the top story in every newspaper, the most urgent item at the U.N., the highest priority of all the big-league human-rights groups.

Gaddafi fails to break siege

Hindustan Times (Link) - The New York Times (March 2, 2011)

With escalating hostilities bringing Libya closer to civil war, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi’s forces struck back at his opponents on three fronts, with special forces, regular army and, rebels said, fighter jets.

But the rebels dismissed the attacks Monday as ineffectual, and Colonel Gaddafi faced a growing international campaign to force him from power.

As the Pentagon began repositioning Navy warships to support a possible humanitarian or military intervention, secretary of state Hillary Clinton bluntly told the Libyan leader to surrender power “now, without further violence or delay.”

The attacks by the colonel’s troops on an oil refinery in central Libya and on cities on either side of the country unsettled rebel leaders — who have maintained that they are close to liberating the country — and showed that despite defections by the military, the government may still possess powerful assets, including fighter pilots willing to bomb Libyan cities.

Iran to build permanent naval base in Syria

DEBKAfile (Link) (March 1, 2011)

Just two days after two Iranian warships reached the Syrian port of Latakia via the Suez Canal, Friday, Feb. 25, an Iranian-Syrian naval cooperation accord was signed providing for Iran to build its first Mediterranean naval base at the Syrian port, DEBKAfile’s military and Iranian sources reveal.

The base will include a large Iranian Revolutionary Guards weapons depot stocked with hardware chosen by the IRGC subject to prior notification to Damascus. Latakia harbor will be deepened, widened and provided with new “coastal installations” to accommodate the large warships and submarines destined to use these facilities.

Iran has much to celebrate, DEBKAfile’s military sources report. It has acquired its first military foothold on a Mediterranean shore and its first permanent military presence on Syrian soil. Tehran will be setting in place the logistical infrastructure for accommodating incoming Iranian troops to fight in a potential Middle East war.

According to our sources, the “cadets” the Kharg cruiser, one of the two Iranian warships allowed to transit the Suez Canal, was said to be carrying were in fact the first construction crews for building the new port facilities.

FM: Israel won’t cede Golan Heights

UPI (Link) (March 1, 2011)

Israel is willing to enter into peace negotiations with Syria but giving up the Golan Heights will not be on the table, an Israeli official said.

“There is no justification or reason for Israel to cede the Golan Heights,” Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told envoys from Japan and Romania along with Quartet envoy Tony Blair, Ynetnews.com reported Tuesday.

Israel acquired the Golan Heights, located at the southern end of the border with Syria, during the 1967 War.

Lieberman accused the Syrians of desperately wanting to talk about peace but not really wanting to seek peace.

“They want a peace process in order to get Western legitimacy,” he said. “President Assad’s only goal is to maintain the rule of the Assad dynasty.”

Lieberman’s statements followed a month of more than 20 meetings with European and senior U.S. officials.

During a Monday session with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Lieberman said he’s not sure the current uprisings in Middle Eastern nations will result in the establishment of democracies. †

Egypt’s Moussa says running for president; adopts harsher tone on Israel

YNet News (Link) - Roee Nahmias (March 1, 2011)

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa announced on Tuesday that he was running for president of Egypt in elections scheduled for this year.

In an interview with Al-Masry Al-Youm daily, the former Egyptian foreign minister recalled his disagreements with ousted President Hosni Mubarak regarding Israel. “The foreign ministry during my term suffered from a negative policy on Israel’s part with regards to the peace (treaty). I thought we should be honest with the Israelis and take firm measures against them in the framework of the foreign ministry’s activities. Maybe this created some discord regarding (Egypt’s) relations with Israel.”

Moussa, who served as Egyptian foreign minister from 1991 until 2001, also addressed Israel’s nuclear program. “The issue was under the full responsibility of the Foreign Ministry. The idea was to establish a nuclear-free zone and simultaneously ‘besiege’ Israel’s nuclear program,” he said. Moussa was referring to diplomatic measures he thought should have been taken as a means of curtailing Israel’s nuclear program.

Iran trying to buy nuclear missile parts: Norway

Reuters (Link) - Walter Gibbs (February 28, 2011)

Iran has been trying without success to obtain Norwegian missile technology for possible use in delivering nuclear weapons, Norway’s security chief said on Monday.

Janne Kristiansen, general director of the Norwegian Police Security Service, told Reuters Iran had approached small Norwegian companies that sell “special components that can ... be used in weapons of mass destruction, for building missiles.”

Iranian efforts the past year, she said, targeted dual-use technology suitable for civilian products as well as advanced missiles like those that Norwegian contractor Kongsberg Defense Systems makes for several NATO navies and air forces.

“There are many (companies in Norway) that supply missile technology,” she said. “I am not pointing the finger at one company.”

The West fears Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies the charge, saying its nuclear program is for producing electricity.

With Russia’s $650 billion rearmament plan, the bear sharpens its teeth

Christian Science Monitor (Link) - Fred Weir (February 28, 2011)

The graying bear is getting a make-over. Russia’s military is launching its biggest rearmament effort since Soviet times, including a $650 billion program to procure 1,000 new helicopters, 600 combat planes, 100 warships, and 8 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.

Analysts say Russia, while already the world’s fifth-largest military spender, needs strong conventional forces to reduce its overreliance on its aging Soviet-era nuclear missile deterrent. Valentin Rudenko, director of the independent Interfax-Military News Agency, says it could create “a whole new ballgame.”

“For about two decades we’ve had no real modernization, at least not like what’s being proposed now,” he says. “Russia will finally have a modern, top-level armed forces that are capable of protecting the country.”

Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Popovkin last week announced the unprecedented new outlays, which will see a massive re-equipping of Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent as well as its conventional forces. The Defense Ministry today said the “modernization drive” will begin this year with the deployment of new generations of air defense and antimissile weapons by Russian ground forces.

Financial terrorism suspected in 2008 economic crash

The Washington Times (Link) - Bill Gertz (February 28, 2011)

Evidence outlined in a Pentagon contractor report suggests that financial subversion carried out by unknown parties, such as terrorists or hostile nations, contributed to the 2008 economic crash by covertly using vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system.

The unclassified 2009 report “Economic Warfare: Risks and Responses” by financial analyst Kevin D. Freeman, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, states that “a three-phased attack was planned and is in the process against the United States economy.”

While economic analysts and a final report from the federal government’s Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission blame the crash on such economic factors as high-risk mortgage lending practices and poor federal regulation and supervision, the Pentagon contractor adds a new element: “outside forces,” a factor the commission did not examine.

“There is sufficient justification to question whether outside forces triggered, capitalized upon or magnified the economic difficulties of 2008,” the report says, explaining that those domestic economic factors would have caused a “normal downturn” but not the “near collapse” of the global economic system that took place.