Watchman Newsletter

Federal Reserve announces July launch for the FedNow Service

Federalreserve.gov (Link) - Press Release (March 15, 2023)

The Service will Debut with Financial Institutions and the U.S. Treasury on Board

CHICAGO – The Federal Reserve announced that the FedNow Service will start operating in July and provided details on preparations for launch.

The first week of April, the Federal Reserve will begin the formal certification of participants for launch of the service. Early adopters will complete a customer testing and certification program, informed by feedback from the FedNow Pilot Program, to prepare for sending live transactions through the system.

Certification encompasses a comprehensive testing curriculum with defined expectations for operational readiness and network experience. In June, the Federal Reserve and certified participants will conduct production validation activities to confirm readiness for the July launch.

"We couldn't be more excited about the forthcoming FedNow launch, which will enable every participating financial institution, the smallest to the largest and from all corners of the country, to offer a modern instant payment solution," said Ken Montgomery, first vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and FedNow program executive. "With the launch drawing near, we urge financial institutions and their industry partners to move full steam ahead with preparations to join the FedNow Service."

Many early adopters have declared their intent to begin using the service in July, including a diverse mix of financial institutions of all sizes, the largest processors, and the U.S. Treasury.

The President Of France Wants Eurozone Members To Transfer Their Sovereignty To A United States Of Europe

The Economic Collapse Blog (Link) - Michael Snyder (July 19, 2015)

The President of France has come up with a very creative way of solving the European debt crisis. On Sunday, a piece authored by French President Francois Hollande suggested that the ultimate solution to the problems currently plaguing Europe would be for every member of the eurozone to transfer all of their sovereignty to a newly created federal government. In other words, it would essentially be a “United States of Europe”. This federal government would have a prime minister, a parliament, a federal budget and a federal treasury. Presumably, the current national governments in Europe would continue to function much like state governments in the U.S. do. In the end, there may be some benefits to such a union – particularly for the weaker members of the eurozone. But at what cost would those benefits come?

The Tip Of The Iceberg Of The Coming Retirement Crisis That Will Shake America To The Core

The Economic Collapse Blog (Link) - Michael Snyder (July 22, 2013)

The pension nightmare that is at the heart of the horrific financial crisis in Detroitis just the tip of the iceberg of the coming retirement crisis that will shake America to the core.  Right now, more than 10,000 Baby Boomers are hitting the age of 65 every single day, and this will continue to happen every single day until the year 2030.  As a society, we have made trillions of dollars of financial promises to these Baby Boomers, and there is no way that we are going to be able to keep those promises.  The money simply is not there.  Yes, I suppose that we could eventually see a “super devaluation” of the U.S. dollar and keep our promises to the Baby Boomers using currency that is not worth much more than Monopoly money, but as it stands right now we simply do not have the resources to do what we said that we were going to do.  The number of senior citizens in the United States is projected to more than double by the middle of the century, and it would have been nearly impossible to support them all even if we weren’t in the midst of a long-term economic decline.  Tens of millions of Americans that are eagerly looking forward to retirement are going to be in for a very rude awakening in the years ahead.  There is going to be a lot of heartache and a lot of broken promises.

What is going on in Detroit right now is a perfect example of what will soon be happening all over the nation.  Many city workers stuck with their jobs for decades because of the promise of a nice pension at the end of the rainbow.  But now those promises are going up in smoke.  There has even been talk that retirees will only end up getting about 10 cents for every dollar that they were promised.

The Fuse is Lit: European Perils

Mcalvany Financial (Link) (May 21, 2012)

With the acceleration of economic and monetary events here is the first of 3 short films in 2012. Our focus is the US dollar, notably its status as the world’s reserve currency. The monetary greed and mountains of debt in recent years has deeply impaired the dollar’s justification to hold this prestigious and privileged position. We believe the US dollar’s tenure as the world’s reserve currency is rapidly approaching its end. We first explore the EU in that context. The fuse is lit! †

Warning Signs That We Should Prepare For The Worst

The Economic Collapse Blog (Link) (January 18, 2012)

The warning signs are all around us. All we have to do is open up our eyes and look at them. Almost every single day there are more prominent voices in the financial world telling us that a massive economic crisis is coming and that we need to prepare for the worst. On Wednesday, it was the World Bank itself that issued a very chilling warning. In an absolutely startling report, the World Bank revised GDP growth estimates for 2012 downward very sharply, warned that Europe could be on the verge of a devastating financial crisis, and declared that the rest of the world better “prepare for the worst.” You would expect to hear this kind of thing on The Economic Collapse Blog, but this is not the kind of language that you would normally expect to hear from the stuffed suits at the World Bank. Obviously things have gotten bad enough that nobody is even really trying to deny it anymore. Andrew Burns, the lead author of the report, said that if the sovereign debt crisis gets even worse we could be looking at an economic crisis that could be even worse than the last one: “An escalation of the crisis would spare no-one. Developed- and developing-country growth rates could fall by as much or more than in 2008/09.” Burns also stated that the “importance of contingency planning cannot be stressed enough.” In other words, Burns is saying that it is time to prepare for the worst. So are you ready?

But of course it isn’t just the World Bank that is warning about these things. The chorus of voices that is warning about the next great financial crisis just seems to grow by the day.

Some of these voices were profiled in a Bloomberg article the other day entitled “Apocalypse How? Dire ’12 Forecasts.” The following is just a sampling of quotes from that article....

Ron Paul Warns of Coming Global Meltdown

Nolan Chart (Link) - Jake Morphonios (December 10, 2011)

In Des Moines, Iowa, Congressman Ron Paul gave a stark warning: “The world is facing a major, major crisis. I personally believe it’s worse than anything that’s ever existed in the world before.” The Republican presidential candidate delivered his grim economic message on the Iowa campaign trail, warning of a global financial meltdown if drastic measures aren’t quickly taken to get on top of the U.S. debt problem.

“As a physician, let me tell you, what we do with our economy, with our money, the monetary system, with the spending and the inflating, it’s very similar to treating a drug addict by just giving him another fix, not getting him off the drug,” he said to employees of Principal Financial. “The drug of spending and borrowing and printing money and deficit just delays the inevitable.” Dr. Paul said that the US addiction to debt is like an alcoholic with a failing liver who refuses to save himself by changing his bad habits.

The Texas congressman expressed dismay that other Republican presidential candidates have treated the crisis so lightly, supporting fed plans to simply print more money and try to “kick the can down the road.”

Evolution Securities Warns Of “Total Carnage And Meltdown” As European Bank Sales Of CDS On European Sovereign Debt Soar

Zero Hedge (Link) - Tyler Durden (December 9, 2011)

As much as we hate to say it, Europe is now without a shadow of a doubt the new AIG, only this time such heretofore considered insane (in retrospect) activities as doubling down to infinity on ones TBTF status are out in the public record for all to see. At least AIG conducted Joe Cassano’s “made in London” $2.7 trillion bet on home prices never dropping in the shadows of Curzon 1. Whereas two days ago we made it clear [16]how the unwind of trillions in rehypothecated securities could be the avalanche that buries first Europe and then the world, we explicitly excluded the impact of synthetic products such as CDS. Now it is time to bring the picture full circle, and put CDS front and center. As Bloomberg reports,

“BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, sold a net 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion) of credit- default swaps on the nation’s sovereign debt, according to data compiled by the European Banking Authority. UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest lender, and Banca Monte dei Paschi SpA are net insurers of more than 500 million euros each of their government’s bonds, and Oesterreichische Volksbanken AG, the Austrian lender which has yet to pay interest on 1 billion euros of state aid received in 2009, has guaranteed a net 839 million euros of its national debt, EBA data show.” (EBA source - link [17]).

For those confused by the above, here is the explanation: European banks, in order to generate modest cash flow from collecting on the pariodic interest premiums owed to them in order to plug increasingly large capital shortfall holes that otherwise would simply keep growing ever larger, have sold and continue to sell massive amounts of default protection on their very own host countries! As a reminder, it was precisely this that destroyed AIG when the illusion of the credit bubble burst.

22 Reasons Why We Could See An Economic Collapse In Europe In 2012

The Economic Collapse (Link) (November 29, 2011)

Will 2012 be the year that we see an economic collapse in Europe? Before you dismiss the title of this article as “alarmist,” read the facts listed in the rest of this article first. Over the past several months, there has been an astonishing loss of confidence in the European financial system. Right now, virtually nobody wants to loan money to financially troubled nations in the EU and virtually nobody wants to lend money to major European banks. Remember, one of the primary reasons for the financial crisis of 2008 was a major credit crunch that happened here in the United States. This burgeoning credit crunch in Europe is just one element of a “perfect storm” that is rapidly coming together as we get ready to go into 2012. The signs of trouble are everywhere. All over Europe, governments are implementing austerity measures and dramatically cutting back on spending. European banks are substantially cutting back on lending as they seek to meet new capital requirements that are being imposed upon them. Meanwhile, bond yields are going through the roof all over Europe as investors lose confidence and demand much higher returns for investing in European debt. It has become clear that without a miracle happening, quite a few European nations and a significant number of European banks are not going to be able to get the funding that they need from the market in 2012. The only thing that is going to avert a complete and total financial meltdown in Europe is dramatic action, but right now European leaders are so busy squabbling with each other that a bold plan seems out of the question.

The following are 22 reasons why we could see an economic collapse in Europe in 2012....

Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns

The Telegraph (Link) - James Kirkup (November 25, 2011)

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.

Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

The Coming European Superstate That Germany Plans To Cram Down The Throats Of The Rest Of Europe

Economic Collapse Blog (Link) (November 18, 2011)

A lot of people were puzzled about what German Chancellor Angela Merkel meant when she recently stated that the ultimate solution to the financial crisis in the EU would “mean more Europe, not less Europe”. Well, now we are finding out. A leaked internal German government memo entitled “The Future of the EU: Required Integration Policy Improvements for the Creation of a Stability Union” actually proposes the creation of a “European Monetary Fund” which would be given the power to run the economies of troubled European nations. This “stability union” would be quickly followed by the creation of a full-fledged “political union”. Essentially, this leaked memo proposes the creation of a “European Superstate” which will be crammed down the throats of the rest of Europe whether they like it or not. National sovereignty would be a thing of the past and European bureaucrats would run everything. Of course this will never be accepted by the people of Europe until they feel the bitter pain of the coming financial collapse, but we are starting to see that there is already a clear plan for what the Germans wish to implement in the aftermath of the coming crisis.

A lot of people have just assumed that if there is a massive financial collapse in Europe and the euro crashes that it will mean that end of the euro and potentially the breakup of the EU. But that is not what the Germans have planned at all.

Europe’s Crisis: Beyond Finance

Stratfor Global Intelligence (Link) - George Friedman (November 15, 2011)

Everyone is wondering about the next disaster to befall Europe. Italy is one focus; Spain is also a possibility. But these crises are already under way. Instead, the next crisis will be political, not in the sense of what conventional politician is going to become prime minister, but in the deeper sense of whether Europe’s political elite can retain power, or whether new political forces are going to emerge that will completely reshape the European political landscape. If this happens, it will be by far the most important consequence of the European financial crisis.

Thus far we have seen some changes in personalities in the countries at the center of the crisis. In Greece, Prime Minister George Papandreou stepped aside, while in Italy Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi now has resigned. Though these resignations have represented a formal change of government, they have not represented a formal policy change. In fact, Papandreou and Berlusconi both stepped down on the condition that their respective governments adopt the austerity policies proposed during their respective tenures.

Europeanists dominate the coalitions that have replaced them. They come from the generation and class that are deeply intellectually and emotionally committed to the idea of Europe. For them, the European Union is not merely a useful tool for achieving national goals. Rather, it is an alternative to nationalism and the horrors that nationalism has brought to Europe. It is a vision of a single Continent drawn together in a common enterprise — prosperity — that abolishes the dangers of a European war, creates a cooperative economic project and, least discussed but not trivial, returns Europe to its rightful place at the heart of the international political system.

A Scary Prediction for the Collapse of Paper Money

The Globe and Mail (Link) - Neil Reynolds (November 15, 2011)

What should U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke do next? London-based economist Detlev Schlichter says, succinctly: “Abdicate.” What should U.S. President Barack Obama do next? Mr. Schlichter says, succinctly: “Abdicate.” With Mr. Schlichter, you aren’t left with much doubt about his position. He says the world’s major currencies are destined to crash. “The dollar, the euro and the yen are locked in a race to the bottom,” he writes on his website, papermoneycollapse.com. The only question is which one crashes first.

Mr. Schlichter argues that we are only part of the way through the market meltdown – and that the worst is still to come. How much worse? Considerably worse, he says, than the Great Depression.

U.S. industrial production is 12 times higher now than it was in 1929, he says; but the amount of U.S. dollars in circulation is 200 times higher.

The U.S. net debt was 150 per cent of GDP in 1973, when then-president Richard Nixon took the country off the gold standard; yet its net debt reached a record high in 2010: 370 per cent. The United States will fall further, Mr. Schlichter insists, because it has further to fall.

Netherlands: Indebted states must be made ‘wards’ of the commission or leave euro

EU Observer (Link) - Leigh Phillips (September 7, 2011)

The Dutch government has proposed that highly indebted states be put into “guardianship,” with spending decisions seized from the elected government and placed under the direct control of a European commissioner.

If a state is unwilling to surrender its sovereignty in this way, then it would be forced to exit the euro.

“Member states not willing to make themselves a ward, may choose to make use of the option to leave the eurozone,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said in a letter to the national parliament co-signed by the finance, economy and foreign ministers.

“To continue to be part of the monetary union, states should fully respect agreements.”

Under the proposals, seen by EUobserver, a special European commissioner would be appointed to oversee the budgets of euro-area countries.

Spectre of fresh EU treaty returns to haunt ‘incomplete’ Europe

EU Observer (Link) - Leigh Phillips (September 6, 2011)

It took nearly a decade of squabbling amongst EU states, a series of referendum disasters and a last-minute game of high-stakes brinksmanship from a stubborn Czech president, but the bloc finally managed to radically refashion the way it worked with the passage of the Lisbon Treaty in 2010.

So exhausted were they by the struggle by the time the soap opera ended, European leaders then swore it would be very long indeed, perhaps a generation, before the EU treaties would be opened again.

But now, in the last few days, as Europe’s economy and the single currency stand on the precipice, these same leaders have begun to eat their words.

On Tuesday, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called for the second time in a week for changes to the treaties.

“Strengthening the eurozone’s architecture ... may need profound treaty changes,” he wrote in an opinion piece for the Financial Times.

We Are in ‘Worse Situation’ Than in 2008: Roubini

CNBC (Link) - Catherine Boyle (September 2, 2011)

The world’s developed economies are trapped at the “stall speed” of low growth and need to have greater fiscal stimulus and less austerity to kick-start growth, leading economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Friday.

Speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum on the shores of Lake Como, near Milan, Roubini said in an interview: “We are in a worse situation than we were in 2008. This time around we have fiscal austerity and banks that are being cautious.”

Roubini, known for his bearish views on the world economy, thinks that there is a 60 percent chance of a second recession imminently. Economic data of recent weeks presents a mixed picture.

On Thursday, the US government announced that jobless claims dropped by 11,000 to 409,000 last week. Friday’s employment report in the US is expected to show a gain of only 75,000 nonfarm jobs during August, with the unemployment rate steady at 9.1 percent.

Recent surveys point to slumping business and consumer confidence across the developed world.

25 Signs That The Financial World Is About To Hit The Big Red Panic Button

Economic Collapse Blog (Link) - Michael (August 31, 2011)

Most of the worst financial panics in history have happened in the fall. Just recall what happened in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Well, September 2011 is about to begin and there are all kinds of signs that the financial world is about to hit the big red panic button. Wave after wave of bad economic news has come out of the United States recently, and Europe is embroiled in an absolutely unprecedented debt crisis. At this point there is a very real possibility that the euro may not even survive. So what is causing all of this? Well, over the last couple of decades a gigantic debt bubble has fueled a tremendous amount of “fake prosperity” in the western world. But for a debt bubble to keep going, the total amount of debt has to keep expanding at an ever increasing pace. Unfortunately for the global economy, sources of credit are starting to dry up. That is why you hear terms like “credit crisis” and “credit crunch” thrown around so much these days. Without enough credit to feed the monster, the debt bubble is going to burst. At this point, virtually the entire global economy runs on credit, so when this debt bubble bursts things could get really, really messy.

Nations and financial institutions would never get into debt trouble if they could always borrow as much money as they wanted at extremely low interest rates. But what has happened is that lending sources are balking at continuing to lend cheap money to nations and financial institutions that are already up to their eyeballs in debt.

For example, the yield on 2 year Greek bonds is now over 40 percent. Investors don’t trust the Greek government and they are demanding a huge return in order to lend them more money.

Bernanke Blames Lawmakers for Economic Woes

Christian Post (Link) - Joseph Perkins (August 26, 2011)

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said today that the weakened state of the U.S. economy is attributable, in large part, to the dysfunctional process by which the nation’s lawgivers make fiscal decisions.

“The quality of economic policy-making in the United States will heavily influence the nation’s long term prospects,” he told an audience of central bankers, economists and academics attending an economics conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., hosted annually by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

The Fed chief’s remarks were much anticipated by the financial communities here and abroad, which wondered whether Bernanke would offer a hint of a major new Fed initiative, as he did at last year’s conference.

But there was no such hint today, which signaled to conference attendees that there will be no third round of bond-buying by the Fed, which purchased more than $2.5 trillion in longer term securities during two previous rounds of “quantitative easing,” the most recent of which ended this past June.

Obama set to beat Bush debt-aggregation record

Hot Air (Link) - Ed Morrissey (August 23, 2011)

In 31 months of Barack Obama’s presidency, according to the Treasury and CBS News, the US has added $4 trillion to its national debt. That approaches the presidential record set by George W. Bush of $4.9 trillion, but there’s a catch to that. Bush set that record in two terms — in 96 months:

The latest posting by the Treasury Department shows the national debt has now increased $4 trillion on President Obama’s watch.

The debt was $10.626 trillion on the day Mr. Obama took office. The latest calculation from Treasury shows the debt has now hit $14.639 trillion.

It’s the most rapid increase in the debt under any U.S. president.

The national debt increased $4.9 trillion during the eight-year presidency of George W. Bush. The debt now is rising at a pace to surpass that amount during Mr. Obama’s four-year term.

Let’s cast this by month rather than by year. Bush added an average of $51 billion a month to the national debt. In his 31 months in office, Obama has added to the national debt at an average monthly rate of $129 billion. That is 152% more per month than Obama’s predecessor.

Pentagon prepares for economic warfare

The Australian (Link) - Helen Rumbelow (August 20, 2011)

The guests were assembled in the Warfare Analysis Laboratory, surrounded by uniformed officers from the highest levels of the Pentagon and a dizzying array of screens normally used to simulate nuclear world war.

The gentlemen were called to order and the games began.

“If you imagine the war room in Dr. Strangelove, you’re not far off,” says participant James Rickards.

Yet this was no traditional battle game, but rather the Pentagon’s first economic war game, and the authorities are loath to talk about it.

Economic war? It sounds preposterous. Except it gets less so with every dollar of debt run up by the US.

Behind the scenes, the military are worried about the market. For who owns much of this debt? China, the US’s most powerful rival and threat. And that makes America vulnerable to a new kind of bloodless but ruthless war.

Father Of The Euro: It’s “On The Edge Of A Precipice”

Business Insider (Link) - Simone Foxman (August 18, 2011)

Jacques Delors -- one man responsible for ushering in the European Economic and Monetary Union -- told Swiss newspaper Le Temps that Europe and the euro risk falling from “the edge of a precipice.”

“To avoid falling, the choice looks straightforward to me: either member states accept the robust economic partnership I always demanded, or they transfer more powers to the Union,” said Delors, who served as European Commission president from 1985 to 1994.

His voice joins a chorus of experts and leaders who are calling for eurobonds and a more comprehensive economic and political EU.

Delors proposed a part-mutualization of European debt, with nations allowed to harmonize debts worth “up to 60 percent of GDP” and issue joint securities. This is, in his words, “the pump to extinguish the fire.”

Weaker euro states could lose local banks

The Telegraph (Link) - Harry Wilson (August 10, 2011)

Equity analysts at Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, said that the problem with the European banking system is that it is “not aligned to the single currency area” and that larger banks with operations across the region were likely to replace smaller single country-focused lenders.

“We envisage that banks operating on a more EU-wide basis, alongside an ECB with appropriate powers, would be an important part of a sustainable euro project,” said Tony Silverman, a financial analyst at S&P.

“This may mean peripheral countries should not necessarily expect to have their own domestic banks,” he added.

Mr Silverman points out that about 50pc of eurozone deposits lent through the European Central Bank and the interbank market are to banks that have loans in excess of their deposits, adding there is a “conspicuous” absence of banks that are net lenders to the market.

“We would question whether this is sustainable and indeed to what extent such funding can meaningfully be regarded as temporary,” said Mr Silverman.

Global Economic Downturn: A Crisis of Political Economy

Stratfor Global Intelligence (Link) - George Friedman (August 9, 2011)

Classical political economists like Adam Smith or David Ricardo never used the term “economy” by itself. They always used the term “political economy.” For classical economists, it was impossible to understand politics without economics or economics without politics. The two fields are certainly different but they are also intimately linked. The use of the term “economy” by itself did not begin until the late 19th century. Smith understood that while an efficient market would emerge from individual choices, those choices were framed by the political system in which they were made, just as the political system was shaped by economic realities. For classical economists, the political and economic systems were intertwined, each dependent on the other for its existence.

The current economic crisis is best understood as a crisis of political economy. Moreover, it has to be understood as a global crisis enveloping the United States, Europe and China that has different details but one overriding theme: the relationship between the political order and economic life. On a global scale, or at least for most of the world’s major economies, there is a crisis of political economy. Let’s consider how it evolved.

A National Debt Of $14 Trillion? Try $211 Trillion

NPR (Link) (August 6, 2011)

When Standard & Poor’s reduced the nation’s credit rating from AAA to AA-plus, the United States suffered the first downgrade to its credit rating ever. S&P took this action despite the plan Congress passed this past week to raise the debt limit.

The downgrade, S&P said, “reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.”

It’s those medium- and long-term debt problems that also worry economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff, who served as a senior economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers. He says the national debt, which the U.S. Treasury has accounted at about $14 trillion, is just the tip of the iceberg.

“We have all these unofficial debts that are massive compared to the official debt,” Kotlikoff tells David Greene, guest host of weekends on All Things Considered. “We’re focused just on the official debt, so we’re trying to balance the wrong books.”

China says debt financing unlikely ‘to save’ US, EU

France 24 (Link) - AFP (August 5, 2011)

China said Friday that debt deals in the United States and in Europe would not be enough to save their economies and “concrete steps” must be taken to rebalance the global economy.

“The only way the Americans have come up with to improve economic growth has been to take on new loans to repay the old ones,” a blistering commentary published on the official Xinhua news agency said.

“To eat May’s grain in April, however, will never be a permanent solution to a problem,” the report said.

China warned on Wednesday that Washington’s efforts to raise the US limit on borrowing had failed to defuse America’s “debt bomb” and signalled that Beijing would further diversify its holdings away from the dollar.

The West’s horrible fiscal choice

The Telegraph (Link) - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (August 3, 2011)

The theoretical model behind the austerity push – known as an “expansionary fiscal contraction” – is based on the work of German theorists, and more recently on studies by Harvard professor Alberto Alesina and a group of brave scholars willing to defy the canonical doctrine of post-war Keynesian economics.

The Alesina view has been embraced by the European Central Bank and the budget cutters of the Eurogroup, but has enraged America’s professoriat and set off a heated argument across the world.

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said there is now a one-third chance of a full-blown recession next year in the US. Nobel leaureate Paul Krugman said obscurantists had run amok. “What we’re witnessing here is a catastrophe on multiple levels. We are doing a terrible thing. We are repeating all the mistakes of the 1930s, doing our best shot at recreating the Great Depression,” he said.

Fear that a synchronized squeeze in half the global economy may go horribly wrong has seeped into market psychology, explaining why the $2.4 trillion (£1.5 trillion) debt deal agreed in Washington has failed to spark a relief rally. Wall Street is a step ahead, bracing for cuts in an economy that has already slipped to stall speed.

Debt Deal Is A Blank Check

Forbes (Link) - Peter Schiff (August 2, 2011)

By supposedly compromising to raise the debt ceiling, Congress and the president have now paved the way for ever higher levels of federal spending. Although the nation was spared the trauma of borrowing restrictions, the actual risk of default existed solely in the minds of Washington politicians.

Both parties are now pretending that the promised cuts in spending outweigh the increase in the debt limit. But the $900 billion in identified cuts are spread over a decade and are skewed toward the end of that period. There are an additional $1.4 trillion in cuts that the plan assumes will be identified by a bi-partisan budget committee. But similarly empowered panels in the past have almost never delivered on their mandates.

More importantly, none of these “cuts” are actually binding. There is plenty of time for future Congresses to reverse what was so laboriously agreed to over the past few weeks. My guess is renewed economic weakness will be used to justify ultimate suspension of the cuts. In addition, most of the spending reductions were already scheduled to take effect before this agreement. So what did we really get?

The Congressional Budget Office currently projects that $9.5 trillion in new debt will have to be issued over the next 10 years. Even if all of the reductions proposed in the deal were to come to pass, which is highly unlikely, that would still leave $7.1 trillion in new debt accumulation by 2021. Our problems have not been solved by a long shot.

EU demands that Britain admit immigrants intending to go straight on to benefits

The Telegraph (Link) - Daniel Hannan (August 2, 2011)

The European Commission may finally have hit on an issue that jerks Britain from its euro-torpor – an issue that simultaneously presses the buttons of border control, welfare abuse and Brussels intrusiveness. Whether from hubris, power-hunger or from sheer stupidity, Eurocrats are demanding that Britain stop asking immigrants to show that they won’t immediately start accessing the social security system.

As the law stands, people wishing to settle in Britain must demonstrate that they have the means to support themselves, either through work or through an alternative source of income such as a pension. The European Commission claims that this amounts to discrimination against EU citizens, who are supposed to enjoy the same rights as British nationals.

In fact, as so often happens, Eurocrats are disregarding the plain text of their own rules. Article 7(1) of the Free Movement Directive gives EU citizens the right to reside in another member state only if they have “sufficient resources for themselves and their family members not to become a burden on the social assistance system of the host Member State”.

Jim Rickards - Germany’s Fourth Reich Has Conquered Europe

King World News (Link) - Eric King (July 28, 2011)

With fear escalating around the financial world as the US debt ceiling deadline draws near, today King World News interviewed Jim Rickards to get his take on where things stand. One of the things KWN was surprised to learn was that while everyone has been focused on the US’s debt problem, the Germans with the cooperation of their political and financial foot soldiers have essentially conquered Europe.

Jim Rickards explains this extraordinary conquest,

“It became more and more clear that there was no good way out, in other words you could just have an outright Greek default, which would be highly disruptive or Greece could have left the Euro and that’s another bad outcome. Not so much economically, but politically, Germany and France don’t want that because it would lead to the unraveling of the entire Euro project which has been going on since the early ‘50s.”

Europe’s Giant Leap Toward a Superstate

The Trumpet (Link) - Brad Macdonald & Richard Palmer  (July 22, 2011)

Nearly 30 years ago Herbert Armstrong prophesied that a massive banking crisis “could suddenly result in triggering European nations to unite as a new world power larger than either the Soviet Union or the U.S.” (emphasis added throughout).

On Thursday, that prophecy became reality.

To many observers, Thursday’s eurozone meeting in Brussels seemed like just another meeting. Europe’s leaders, noted some economists, have once again kicked the can down the road. These people have gotten bogged down in the details. In reality, unlike previous summits, Europe’s leaders on Thursday made several important long-term decisions that catapult the Continent toward becoming a European superstate.

“[I]t is almost impossible to overestimate the importance of the decision which European leaders seemed last night to be reaching,” wrote the Telegraph’s chief political commentator, Peter Oborne, in an article titled “The euro crisis will give Germany the empire it’s always dreamed of.”

Even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a lady not prone to exaggeration or speaking in dramatic terms, announced Thursday that “this is a historic day.”

“What we are doing now is an example for deeper integration—handing over and transferring more competences to EU institutions,” Merkel said.

The fate of the euro is in the hands of Germany

The Telegraph UK (Link) (July 14, 2011)

The Italian parliament’s endorsement of a £40 billion austerity package has temporarily eased the turmoil in the eurozone but will not end it.

Yesterday’s vote in the senate, to be confirmed by the lower house today, marked a truce in the political in-fighting in Rome that had placed the debt reduction strategy in peril.

A successful, if expensive, sale of Italian government bonds also helped steady nerves amid fears that the eurozone contagion was spreading to one of its biggest economies.

Speculation that the European Central Bank stepped in to buy Italy’s debt has not been confirmed, but would be significant if true.

It would suggest that the ECB is finally trying to put together a strategy to contain the crisis. The piecemeal approach it has so far adopted is simply not good enough.