Watchman Newsletter

Iran: Armageddon at hand, prepare for war

WorldNet Daily (Link) - Reza Kahlili (July 29, 2013)

Iran is again asserting that Armageddon is at hand and that the Islamic regime’s followers, indeed all of Islam, must prepare for a monumental change in the world.

Officials of the Islamic regime last month held their annual conference on the Mahdism Doctrine to prepare for the coming of the last Islamic messiah, the Shiites’ 12th Imam, Mahdi.

Shiites, whose clerics rule Iran with an iron fist, believe that at the end of times, Mahdi, a 9th century prophet, will reappear with Jesus Christ at his side, kill all the infidels and raise the flag of Islam in all four corners of the world, establishing worldwide Islamic governance.

Ali Larijani, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said at the conference that, “I hope (Iran’s) Islamic Revolution is that of the righteous government before the coming,” according to Fars News Agency, the regime’s media outlet run by the Revolutionary Guards.

“Righteous government” is a key to Mahdi’s return, the Shiites believe.

“It has been stated in the Islamic hadith that a wave of uprisings (such as the current upheavals in the Arab world) … takes place before the main uprising and that the righteous government (takes place) before the coming, which I hope (Iran’s) Islamic Revolution is that.”

IDF Intel Chief Warns: Syria Becoming Global Jihad Hub

YNet News (Link) - Yoav Zitun (July 23, 2013)

“Syria is drawing thousands of global jihad activists and radical Muslims from the region and the world who are basing themselves in the country, not only to overthrow (President Bashar) Assad, but also to promote the vision of an Islamic state,” IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said Tuesday.

“Right before our eyes a center of global jihad is developing on a scale that may affect not only Syria and the borders of the State of Israel, but also Jordan and Sinai,” he said at an intelligence officers’ graduation ceremony, shortly after returning from a work trip to Washington.

Kochavi relayed similar warning to senior American security officials.

In April, Syrian rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra, announced that it had merged with al-Qaeda’s branch in Iraq to form a new entity called “The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,” and that it was taking orders from Ayman al-Zawahiri, who took over Osama bin Laden as the leader of al-Qaeda.

Report: Hezbollah moves missiles from Syria to Lebanon, fearing fall of Assad regime

Haaretz (Link) - Barak Ravid (June 25, 2011)

In recent weeks, Hezbollah has moved hundreds of missiles from storage sites in Syria to bases in eastern Lebanon, the French newspaper Le Figaro reported on Saturday.

According to the report, Hezbollah moved the missiles due to the concern that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad will fall and that a new Syrian government will cut off ties with Hezbollah.

The report quoted a “Western expert” as saying that intelligence agencies have monitored the movement of trucks from the Syrian border to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The trucks contained long-range Iranian-produced Zilzal, Fajr 3 and Fajr 4 missiles.

Hezbollah had been storing these missiles in depots in Syria. Some of the depots are secured by Hezbollah personnel while others are located on Syrian military bases.

Making Sense of the Syrian Crisis

Stratfor Global Intelligence (Link) - Reva Bhalla (May 5, 2011)

Syria is clearly in a state of internal crisis. Protests organized on Facebook were quickly stamped out in early February, but by mid-March, a faceless opposition had emerged from the flashpoint city of Daraa in Syria’s largely conservative Sunni southwest. From Daraa, demonstrations spread to the Kurdish northeast, the coastal Latakia area, urban Sunni strongholds in Hama and Homs, and to Aleppo and the suburbs of Damascus. Feeling overwhelmed, the regime experimented with rhetoric on reforms while relying on much more familiar iron-fist methods in cracking down, arresting hundreds of men, cutting off water and electricity to the most rebellious areas, and making clear to the population that, with or without emergency rule in place, the price for dissent does not exclude death. (Activists claim more than 500 civilians have been killed in Syria since the demonstrations began, but that figure has not been independently verified.)

A survey of the headlines would lead many to believe that Syrian President Bashar al Assad will soon be joining Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak in a line of deposed Arab despots. The situation in Syria is serious, but in our view, the crisis has not yet risen to a level that would warrant a forecast that the al Assad regime will fall.

Why Iran Is Sweating Bullets

The Trumpet (Link) - Brad Macdonald (March 31, 2011)

When it comes to understanding Middle East geopolitics, one question brings terrific clarity: Does this work to the advantage of Iran?

Generally speaking, if an event, decision or circumstance pleases Iran, it will come with negative repercussions for Israel, America or the broader Western community. If Iran is displeased—if sweat is pooling on the brows of Iran’s mullahs—the West must somehow be gaining an advantage. Consider the wave of anti-government uprisings rolling across the region. In virtually each case, be it Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain or Libya, Iran watched the chaos with an ear-to-ear grin. Why? Because in each instance Tehran knew the outcome would bolster its regional influence, either directly or via its radical Islamic proxies.

The only exception to this trend is the unrest in Syria—which has the mullahs in Iran sweating bullets!

The Syrian Time Bomb

Foreign Policy (Link) - Patrick Seale (March 28, 2011)

While one war rages in Libya, another rages in Washington as to the necessity of U.S. action there. Indeed, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said as much this weekend, noting that Libya was not a “vital national interest.” But if Washington is looking for an Arab state in the throes of unrest, one that is key to its regional and national interests, planners might want to pay more attention to Syria, which is currently undergoing upheaval not seen since the early 1980s.

Syria lies at the center of a dense network of Middle East relationships, and the crisis in that country -- which has now resulted in the deaths of well over 100 civilians, and possibly close to double that number -- is likely to have a major impact on the regional structure of power. The need to contain pressure from the United States and Israel, for decades the all-consuming concern of Syria’s leadership, has suddenly been displaced by an explosion of popular protest highlighting urgent and long-neglected domestic issues.

If the regime fails to tame this domestic unrest, Syria’s external influence will inevitably be enfeebled, with dramatic repercussions across the Middle East. As the crisis deepens, Syria’s allies tremble. Meanwhile, its enemies rejoice, as a weakened Syria would remove an obstacle to their ambitions. But nature abhors a vacuum, and what will come will be unpredictable, at best.

IDF: Syria may provoke Israel to distract from domestic unrest

Haaretz (Link) - Anshel Pfeffer (March 23, 2011)

The Israel Defense Forces is readying for the possibility that Syria might create a provocation along the northern border to divert attention from the growing protests against President Bashar Assad’s regime. Nevertheless, the defense establishment views this as unlikely.

Defense officials have been following events in Syria closely over the last few days, especially after the violence in the southern town of Daraa. Intelligence officials said that despite their earlier assessments that the Syrian regime was stable, and that the unrest sweeping other Arab countries would not affect it, they now believe it will be very hard for Assad to restore the status quo ante.

The IDF is also preparing for the possibility that Damascus might use Hezbollah or other militant organizations in Lebanon to heat up that front to divert attention from events in Syria. But one senior officer said that Assad and his people appear to be too busy suppressing the domestic unrest to have time for that. So for now, most preparations are at the intelligence level, and there is currently no plan to beef up IDF forces along the border.

Satellite Photos: More Nuclear Sites in Syria

Israel National News (Link) - Hillel Fendel (February 24, 2011)

Western intelligence agencies have detected another nuclear plant in Syria – in a Damascus suburb.

Following Israel’s bombing of a nuclear production plant in Syria over three years ago, another nuclear complex, albeit smaller, has now apparently been found, following close analysis of satellite photos.

A German newspaper, the Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), reports that it has received the photos, but will not publish them because inferences can be made as to when they were taken, and thus to who leaked them.

In addition, Washington’s Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) published photos on Wednesday of one of three more sites that are believed to be connected to the Al-Kibar facility.

Report: Breakthrough achieved towards Israel-Syria talks

YNet News (Link) - Roee Nahmias (January 1, 2011)

A Kuwaiti newspaper reported Saturday that there is “unprecedented Syrian willingness” to enter back into negotiations with Israel.

The report, which is based on US sources among others, stated that Washington is engaged in secret talks with Syrian senior officials regarding peace talks with Israel. The report has not been confirmed by any other source.

According to the report, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem signaled the US two weeks ago that “the Syrians are ready to reopen direct talks with Israel and achieve peace.” Moallem is in close contact with US government official Dennis Ross.

US President Barack Obama believes, based on such sources, that peace between Israel and Syria would help advance the region. There are no further details regarding the Syrian messages to the US, however Ross has informed the administration that he has “discerned unprecedented Syrian willingness to distance itself from Iran, cool off relations with Hezbollah and Hamas and cooperate with the US on the war on terror.” The report also noted that Israel has shown willingness to withdraw from the Golan Heights.

Israel can’t defeat Hezbollah: Israeli expert

Yahoo! News (Link) - Reuters - Dan Williams (December 16, 2010)

Israel cannot defeat Hezbollah in a direct engagement and the Lebanese guerrilla group would inflict heavy damage on the Israeli home front if war broke out, a former Israeli national security adviser said Thursday.

Though outnumbered and outgunned, Hezbollah held off Israel’s advanced armed forces in a 2006 war and fired more than 4,000 rockets into Israeli territory. The group has a domestic political base and has since bolstered an arsenal that Israel describes as a strategic threat.

Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah’s Iranian and Syrian backers have stoked expectations of renewed violence in Lebanon.

“Israel does not know how to beat Hezbollah,” said Giora Eiland, an army ex-general who served as national security adviser to former prime ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert.

“Therefore a war waged only as Israel-versus-Hezbollah might yield better damage on Hezbollah, but Hezbollah would inflict far worse damage on the Israeli homefront than it did 4-1/2 years ago,” he told Israel Radio.

A resurgent Syria alarms U.S., Israel

The Washington Post (Link) - Janine Zacharia (December 4, 2010)

Syria’s fresh interference in Lebanon and its increasingly sophisticated weapons shipments to Hezbollah have alarmed American officials and prompted Israel’s military to consider a strike against a Syrian weapons depot that supplies the Lebanese militia group, U.S. and Israeli officials say.

The evidence of a resurgence by Syria and its deepening influence across the region has frustrated U.S. officials who sought to change Syrian behavior. But the Obama administration has so far failed through its policy of engagement to persuade the country to abandon its support for Hezbollah and sever its alliance with Iran.

“Syria’s behavior has not met our hopes and expectations over the past 20 months and Syria’s actions have not met its international obligations,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told the Lebanese daily an-Nahar on Nov. 10. “Syria can still choose another path and we hope that it does.”

Israel has complained to the United Nations about long-range missiles and shorter-range rockets that are flowing freely from camps inside Syria to a transit site along the Syrian border with Lebanon and on to Hezbollah. But Israel has so far hesitated to take military action out of concern that such a strike could touch off a conflict even bloodier than the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, said an Israeli military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Possible Syrian nuke facility identified by satellite

The Jerusalem Post (Link) - Yaakov Katz (December 3, 2010)

A compound in western Syria with buildings and hundreds of missile-shaped items has been identified as functionally related to a nuclear reactor Israel destroyed northeast of Damascus in 2007.

Satellite footage of the site in Masyaf was obtained by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security and shows a compound built in a ravine and surrounded by what appears to be a line of trenches.

While there are no security measures visible in the commercial satellite imagery, ISIS said building a facility in a ravine was a common method of providing general protection and isolation.

Several years ago, a military base near Masyaf was mentioned as a possible hiding place for weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussein might have sent to Syria before the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Syrian FM warns of war with ‘peace evading’ Israel

The Jerusalem Post (Link) (November 26, 2010)

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem on Friday warned of the consequences that a war with Israel could entail.

In an interview with Russian newspaper Moscow News, Moallem said “there is no doubt that closing the horizons to peace may lead to a possible war. This option always exists in our region, as Israel usually outrageously evades the commitment to peace.”

“I want to stress that a new war will not result in a winner and loser,” the Syrian foreign minister added. “Everyone will lose because the existing advanced military technology can cause great damage, even for the side with huge military power.”

Lieberman: Israel shouldn’t pursue peace talks with Syria

Haaretz (Link) - Barak Ravid (November 11, 2010)

Israel should not enter peace negotiations with Syria, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said during a visit to the Golan Heights on Thursday, adding anyone who considered such an option a “political hypochondriac.”

Israel and Syria held four indirect rounds of peace talks with Turkish mediation in 2008, but they were suspended following the resignation of then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in September that year.

Syria said at the time of the Israeli offensive in Gaza at the end of 2008 that it ruled out a resumption of the indirect talks any time soon.

Speaking during a meeting with U.S. Senator Arlen Specter in Damascus late last month, Syrian President Bashar Assad said he believed there were no indications such efforts would bear fruit as a result of the “presence of an Israeli government which doesn’t want peace and doesn’t believe in it.”

Referring to the possibility to renewing the stalled peace talks with Syria on Thursday, Lieberman said that “better relations between Damascus and Iran and North Korea, and [Syria’s] becoming a terror hub are facts difficult to ignore and only a political hypochondriac would think that the current leadership is a partner for peace.

‘N. Korea may have sold nuke technology to Iran, Syria’

The Jerusalem Post (Link) (November 9, 2010)

A UN report suggesting that North Korea might have supplied Iran, Syria and Myanmar with banned nuclear technology could be published on the Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee website on Tuesday prior to being reviewed by the Council, Reuters reported.

The report has been in the committee’s possession since May but was not published or passed to the Council in line with standard procedures because of objections from China.

The Security Council will now be able to review the seventy-five page document and consider any action deemed necessary against North Korea as a result of its findings.

According to Reuters, the report states there is reason to believe North Korea is supplying the banned technology. The six-month delay in getting the potentially damning report to the council for a ruling, they say, is “emblematic of China’s increasingly self-confident approach to international diplomacy as it seeks to protect states like North Korea to which it has close ties.”

The panel reportedly felt cause for concern in North Korea’s “continuing involvement in nuclear and ballistic missile related activities in certain countries including Iran, Syria and Myanmar.”

Last week, said Reuters, China did not voice any objections when all Security Council members were asked about the report’s progression, thus allowing it to finally proceed. †

Intelligence chief: Don’t be fooled by calm

YNet News (Link) - Roni Sofer (November 2, 2010)

Outgoing Military Intelligence Chief Major-General Amos Yadlin offered a grim assessment in his last appearance before the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Tuesday.

Yadlin advised Knesset members not to be fooled by the calm security situation and addressed threats from Syria, Hezbollah and Iran.

The MI chief said Russia was providing Syria with portable, state-of-the-art anti-aircraft systems, warning that the IDF may find itself facing a similar situation to that which prevailed in the early 1970s in the Suez Canal.

“These are fairly inexpensive missiles compared to the S-300 but they are no less lethal or effective,” Yadlin said.

The MI chief also warned that the Russians are renovating old Syrian weapons systems. “Syria is engaged in a very intense campaign to procure highly advanced weapons; so advanced in fact that anything that comes off the Russian assembly lines ends up in Syria.”

EU Discusses Closer Ties with Syria Despite Terror Axis

Israel National News (Link) - Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu (October 25, 2010)

A European Union official is to visit Damascus Thursday in an effort to improve ties with Syria, which has allied itself with Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas.

EU Commissioner for Enlargement Stefan Fule wants to activate the EU-Syrian Partnership agreement that was signed in 2004 following years of negotiations. The agreement was put on ice after the assassination of Lebanon’s former anti-Syrian Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri, in a bloody car bomb massacre in Beirut the following year.

Last year, the EU said it was prepared to sign a Syrian-European Partnership Agreement, and the ceremony was planned for Luxembourg on Tuesday. However, Damascus has asked to postpone the ceremony, explaining that it wants more time to consider the agreement’s impact on its economy.

The United States has labeled Syria a country that supports terror, but U.S. President Barack Obama has tried to “engage” Syrian President Bashar Assad in the “diplomatic process” for regional peace in the Middle East. Congress has balked at approving his request to return Washington’s ambassador to Damascus. The former envoy was recalled after the murder of Hariri, which has been widely pinned on Syria and the Hizbullah terrorist organization.

Satellite images reveal: Hezbollah training in Syria missile base

Haaretz (Link) - Avi Scharf (October 8, 2010)

The Syrian army has a Scud missile base near Damascus, according to recent satellite photos. The photos also suggest that Hezbollah activists are being trained in the Scuds’ use at the base.

Reports that Syria may have given Hezbollah Scuds ratcheted up tensions between Jerusalem and Damascus about six months ago, according to foreign media.

The photos, taken on March 22, can be seen by any web surfer on Google Earth. They show extensive construction at several military bases throughout Syria, including at one of the country’s three largest missile bases, located 25 kilometers northeast of Damascus, near the city of Adra.

The base is in a deep valley surrounded by 400-meter-high mountains. Concrete tunnels lead from the base into the mountains, where the Scuds are apparently stored.

The photos show five 11-meter-long missiles (the length of both the Scud B and the Scud C) at the Adra base. Three are on trucks in a parking lot. Two others are in a training area where 20 to 25 people can be made out along with about 20 vehicles. One of the two missiles appears to be mounted on a mobile launcher; another is on the ground.

Turkey Signs Strategic-Military Pact with Syria

Israel National News (Link) (October 3, 2010)

High-ranking officials from Turkey and Syria gathered in the Syrian Mediterranean seaport of Latakia on Sunday to sign agreements for cooperation in the military and strategic fields, according to a report by Channel 2 television.

The report said that the two governments have been holding talks since Friday on strengthening cooperation. One of the goals is to form a free-trade area in the two countries. †

Israel Believes it will Face Russian Missiles

The Media Line (Link) (September 19, 2010)

Israeli defense officials have little doubt that their armed forces will come up against the sophisticated Russian missiles Moscow has agreed to sell to Syria.

On Friday, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced that shipment of P-800 Yakhont supersonic cruise missiles pursuant to a deal signed in 2007 will go forward in defiance of American and Israeli requests to the contrary.

Israel argues that the weapons will undoubtedly end up in the hands of Hizbullah, the Iranian and Syrian terrorist proxy based in Lebanon. The P-800, which can be fired from land or sea, can carry a payload of 440 pounds over a distance of 186 miles at speeds of up to Mach 2.5. (13 miles/minute).

Russia to supply missiles to Syria, despite Israel protest

The Jerusalem Post (Link) (September 17, 2010)

Russia still intends to go through with an arms deal with Syria including the sale of advance anti-ship rockets, despite recent attempts by Israeli and US officials to thwart the planned deal, Russian Defense Minster Anatoly Serdyukov said on Friday according to state news agency RIA Novosti.

The deal includes the sale of advanced P-800 Yakhont supersonic cruise missiles to the Syrian military.

Israel considers this weaponry capable of posing a significant threat to its navy vessels in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Russian defense minister indicated that Russia would go ahead with the contract that was formulated in 2007, saying that “the matter of missile sales to Syria was raised during the talks with US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and undoubtedly, the Russian side of the contract would be fulfilled.”

Referendum for Islam Puts Turkey and Syria Back on ‘Peace Table’

Israel National News (Link) - Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu (September 13, 2010)

Turkey wasted no time after its “referendum for Islam” and promoted its alliance with Syria as the key for a regional Middle East peace.

Gloating after a strong majority voted for reforms that satisfy European Union demands for democratization while weakening the power of the secular-oriented judicial and military institutions, the Islamic government said the vote boosts Ankara’s diplomatic position.

President Abdullah Gul said, “All the articles in the constitutional amendment package are about bringing Turkey’s standards to the European level under Turkey’s European Union membership process.” Turkey has been seeking membership in the EU, a move that would allow Ankara more political clout to force a Syrian-Israeli peace accord based on Israel’s surrendering the strategic Golan Heights.

After an informal meeting with EU ministers, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu made clear his country’s objectives. “We have been involved in intense activity in the Middle East with mediation between Israel and Syria, in Lebanon and Iraq...and in the Caucasus,” he said in a report by the Turkish English language newspaper Today’s Zaman.

Syrian influence in Lebanon on the rise again

Breitbart (Link) - AP - Zeina Karam (September 8, 2010)

Five years ago, Lebanese thronged the streets of Beirut to protest Syrian control over their country in a movement that quickly ended decades of military domination.

Now, many Lebanese are wondering if much has really changed. Syria’s soldiers and the posters of its leader are gone but its influence is undeniably back.

Western-backed Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has shuttled to Damascus five times in the last nine months to try to repair relations that frayed after the 2005 Syrian withdrawal. For many in Lebanon, the trips harken back to times of Syrian dominance when Lebanese leaders used to travel frequently to Damascus to get marching orders.

Syria controlled Lebanon for nearly 30 years—something the U.S. opposed—and kept about 35,000 troops on its soil. But everything changed in February 2005 when a massive truck bombing killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a billionaire businessman and father of the current prime minister.

Jordan and Syria call for Israeli withdrawal from all Arab lands

Haaretz (Link) - DPA (September 6, 2010)

Jordanian King Abdullah II and Syrian President Bashar Assad on Monday stressed the need for Israel to pull out from all Arab territories it occupied in the 1967 war, if peace with the Palestinians is to be achieved.

Abdullah made a whirlwind visit to Damascus to brief the Syrian leader on the outcome of his talks in Washington last week with United States President Barack Obama, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a royal court statement said.

The monarch had attended the six-way meeting on the eve of direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians being relaunched Thursday.

Abdullah and Assad “emphasized that resolving the Palestinian- Israeli conflict on the basis of the two-state vision requires the regaining of all Arab rights in accordance with ... the Arab peace initiative,” the statement said.

The Arab peace initiative offered Israel recognition by all Arab states if it pulled out from all Arab territories it occupied in the 1967 Six-Day War, including East Jerusalem.

Turkish-brokered peace talks between Syria and Israel had faltered in 2008, reportedly after Damascus insisted on the restoration of the entire Golan Heights, one of the Arab territories the Jewish state captured in the 1967 war.

Abdullah and al-Assad also agreed to continue “coordination and consultation” on all bilateral and regional issues and discussed means of boosting pan-Arab action “to cope with common challenges.”

Syria reportedly signs pact with Hizbullah

The Jerusalem Post (Link) - AP (August 30, 2010)

The Syrian army signed a defense alliance with Hizbullah, a Kuwaiti paper reported on Monday.

According to the report in Al-Rai, in case of war, the two will split a “bank” of targets in Israel, and Syrian radars will supply Hizbullah operatives with intelligence on the location of Israeli aircraft, to assist Hizbullah in aiming anti-aircraft weapons.

The alliance radically changes the balance of power in the North, because it means in any future confrontation the IDF will be faced with attacks from both the northern and northeastern borders.

The IDF was surprised by Hizbullah’s level of organization during the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Syrian assistance in intelligence gathering would give the Shi’ite organization a technological advantage that would bring it even closer to the level of an organized military.

During the 2006 war, Israel warned Syria not to intervene, and it avoided clashing with the IDF. According to the new pact, each of the parties will rush to assist the other in case of confrontation with Israel.

In Damascus, Syrian President Bashar Assad urged Lebanon’s leader to support Hizbullah and maintain calm in the country.

Report: Israel planning to attack Hezbollah arms depots in Syria

Haaretz (Link) - Jack Khoury (August 28, 2010)

Israel is planning to attack Hezbollah arms depots and weapons manufacturing plants in Syria, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai reported on Saturday.

The report is based on Western sources who asserted that Israel has increased its military force level along the northern border in the Golan Heights and Mount Dov areas.

The report cited European sources who claimed that recent Israeli unmanned aerial drone flights over Lebanon and Syria signal Israel’s intentions to carry out operations in the area.

According to the report, Israel plans to attack Hezbollah weapons depots, including ones deep inside Syria that store long-range rockets.

The Al Rai report said that the situation on the Israel-Syria border is tense and that Syria could respond immediately to any Israeli attack and not demonstrate the restraint that it did after the Israeli Air Force bombed a suspected nuclear reactor in Syria in the fall of 2007.

According to the report, Syria’s military is on high alert and is strengthening its anti-aircraft defenses along the border with Israel and at strategic sites within Syria.

US tries to tempt Syria away from Iran with regional power incentives

Deutsche Welle (Link) - Nick Amies (August 20, 2010)

The United States, backed by a number of its Arab allies, is dangling the carrot of greater Middle East influence in front of Syria in an attempt to convince Damascus to turn its back on a 30-year alliance with Iran.

With US forces withdrawing from Iraq, the realisation that the United States will drastically reduce its influence in the country after the 2011 final pull-out date begins to dawn on Iraq’s neighbors. Washington has already considered the potential consequences of a power vacuum and has begun to encourage deeper involvement by regional powers considered to be of use in maintaining US interests in the Middle East.

While the courting of Syria for this reason may at first seem surprising, the wider strategic implications of a more active role for Damascus in Iraq’s post-US future suggests Washington is considering a much bigger picture.

Syria’s current interest in Iraq is based on a policy of diluting the power of Shi’a majority in the country and promoting an inclusive, secular government which includes equal representation for the Sunni minority.

Damascus has had a hand in supporting Iyad Allawi, the secular Shi’a leader whose bloc emerged from the contentious elections in March with a slim lead over the coalition of Nouri al-Maliki, the incumbent prime minister.

The Syrians, with the help of Saudi Arabia, aided Allawi’s election campaign and brought Allawi and Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr together to form a new cabinet in July. As the climate of uncertainty in Iraq over the formation of the government continues, both Damascus and Riyadh continue to apply covert pressure in a bid to secure the premiership for Allawi and install a secular government in Iraq.

Turkey Cozies Up to Hizbullah with Iran

Israel National News (Link) - Chana Ya’ar (August 12, 2010)

Turkey has offered to join Iran in sending weapons to Hizbullah in Lebanon, with help from Syria, according to a report published in an Italian newspaper.

The daily Corriere Della Sera quoted sources Wednesday evening who said that Turkey will “send sophisticated weapons, rockets and guns to Syria that will end up in Lebanon.”

The sources went on to say that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards would “facilitate the transition, ensure safety, watch loads on the routes, and provide support to the border.” According to the report, Iran intends to build a network that will supply the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist organization with weapons as well, similar to the weapons network that operates in the Sudan.

The newspaper also reported that Turkish and Iranian intelligence heads Hakan Fidan and Hossein Taeb allegedly met to discuss logistics and relations between the two nations.

Arms from Turkey, Syria, Iran to Hezbollah

UPI (Link) (August 12, 2010)

A secret meeting of Iranian and Turkish intelligence officials has led to a new weapons supply route for Hezbollah, a report says.

Iranian and Turkish intelligence officials recently signed an agreement that establishes territorial continuity for Turkey, Iran, Syria and Lebanon, and guarantees a constant supply of weapons to Hezbollah, a report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera said.

Details of the agreement signed between Ankara and Tehran show a direct link between Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah, the Hebrew daily Yedioth Aharonoth quoted the Italian newspaper as saying Thursday.

Italian reporter and terror expert Guido Olimpio said the agreement was recently signed at a meeting between Hussein Saab, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards secret service, and the recently appointed Turkish intelligence chief Hakkan Fidan, and solves Hezbollah’s ongoing search for weapons suppliers.

Yedioth Aharonoth said Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, in closed meetings, expressed concern about Fidan’s appointment, fearing the secrets shared between the two countries would be leaked to Tehran.

‘Stay away’ US warned

Gulf Daily News (Link) (July 30, 2010)

Syria yesterday warned the US to stop trying to interfere as Arab leaders try to defuse heightened tensions in the Middle East.

Saudi King Abdullah, who arrived in Syria yesterday, was expected to travel with the Syrian president to Beirut today to help calm concerns over pending indictments in the 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s former prime minister.

US State Department spokesman P J Crowley said in Washington that he hoped Syrian President Bashar Assad would “listen very attentively” to Abdullah, a US ally.

Washington has urged Syria to move away from its alliance with Iran.

Syria responded that the US “has no right to determine our relationships with regional states or interfere in the content of the talks.”

The US also urged Abdullah and Assad to encourage the Palestinians to resume direct peace talks with Israel.

“We hope that they will arrive at the conclusion that we have already drawn, which is the sooner we get into direct negotiations, the better,” Crowley added.

Syria and Saudi Arabia have long been on opposite sides of a deep rift in the Arab world. The kingdom is a US ally, along with Jordan and Egypt, while Syria backs militant groups such as the Lebanese Hizbollah and Palestinian Hamas.